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EFFORTS to secure a lasting end to the war between the United States and Iran appeared to falter on Friday as fighting intensified in and around the Strait of Hormuz, while questions emerged over the effectiveness of Washington’s economic and naval pressure campaign against Tehran.
Reuters reported on Saturday that a U.S. intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that Iran could endure the impact of an American naval blockade for at least another four months before facing severe economic strain, according to a U.S. official familiar with the findings.
The assessment suggested Washington’s leverage over Tehran may remain limited despite escalating military and economic measures.
The Washington Post first reported the analysis.
A senior intelligence official rejected the report, calling the “claims” regarding the CIA assessment “false” and insisting the blockade “is inflicting real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”
The developments came as Washington awaited Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal intended to formally conclude the conflict before moving on to broader negotiations concerning Tehran’s nuclear programme and other contentious issues.
“We should know something today,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome. “We’re expecting a response from them.”
Iran’s foreign ministry later confirmed that Tehran was still considering its reply. No formal response had been reported by Friday afternoon in Washington, shortly before midnight in Tehran.
At the same time, tensions in the Gulf intensified. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported further sporadic confrontations between Iranian forces and U.S. naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tasnim news agency later cited an Iranian military source saying the situation had calmed, though warning that additional clashes remained possible.
The U.S. military said it had intercepted two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, with an American fighter jet striking their smokestacks and forcing them to retreat.
Iran has largely restricted non-Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began with joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes across Iran on 28 February. Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels last month.
Despite the latest flare-ups, former President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the ceasefire announced on 7 April remained intact.
The renewed instability nevertheless rattled global energy markets. Brent crude futures climbed above 101 dollars per barrel, although prices remained more than six per cent lower over the week.
The confrontation widened further on Friday after the United Arab Emirates said its air defences intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran. Three people were reported to have sustained moderate injuries.
Iran has repeatedly targeted Gulf states hosting American military bases throughout the conflict. The UAE described the latest attack as a “major escalation”, coming after Tehran intensified operations in response to Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom”, an initiative designed to escort commercial shipping through the strait. Trump later paused the operation after 48 hours.
Tehran accused Washington of undermining the ceasefire through continued military action.
“Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday.
Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded and four others missing following what it described as a U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial vessel late on Thursday.
Speaking after talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Rubio questioned why European allies had not more forcefully supported Washington’s efforts to restore unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Are you going to normalize a country claiming to control an international waterway? Because if you normalize that, you’ve set a precedent that’s going to get repeated in a dozen other places,” Rubio said.
Alongside diplomatic efforts, Washington intensified economic pressure on Tehran by unveiling a fresh package of sanctions.
The U.S. Treasury announced measures against 10 individuals and companies, including several based in China and Hong Kong, accused of helping Iran’s military procure weapons components and raw materials used in the production of Shahed drones.
In a statement, the Treasury said it remained prepared to target Iran’s military-industrial network to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its manufacturing capacity and projecting influence abroad.
Officials also warned that secondary sanctions could be imposed on foreign financial institutions and companies involved in illicit Iranian trade, including entities connected to China’s independent “teapot” oil refineries.
The sanctions announcement came only days before Trump is expected to travel to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping. - May 9, 2026
