Last week, US President Joe Biden instructed the US military to construct a pier in Gaza to allow the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid into the beleaguered city. This move follows an earlier move of the US Air Force resorting to air-dropping aid into Gaza in coordination with the Royal Jordanian Air Force.
The move baffled some analysts as there are far easier alternatives, i.e. forcing the Israelis and Egypt to open the land crossings under their control.
The move would also increase escalation risk, as it would put US military personnel on the ground under direct threat.
The threat against the US military personnel comes in two-fold: from Hamas and Hamas-affiliated groups and the Israeli Defence Force (IDF).
Hamas and Hamas-affiliated forces pose a threat as their anti-Israel rhetoric has painted the US on the same line as the IDF. They may also be suspicious of the US military personnel. They may assume that US special forces and Israeli special forces are trying to infiltrate under the guise of building the port. If they attack the workforce, it will be detrimental to the Hamas cause and Palestinian cause in the long run.
IDF is also a threat to the operation as the port will open a lifeline to both the Palestinian people and Hamas.
IDF may try either by attacking the US military personnel directly or creating chaos near the construction site and 'inadvertently targeting' US military personnel. Both moves will dissuade the US from getting involved and push US public sentiment against the Palestinians. The IDF in the past had shown no compunction in attacking other forces; they tried to sink a US Navy listening post, USS Liberty, in the 70s, and UN soldiers in air strikes.
Having US boots on the ground is also risky, as precedent incidents have occurred whereby a military force involved in humanitarian aid turned into military operations. Case in point: Operation Restore Hope (Black Hawk Down) and the Indian Army's peacekeeping duty in Sri Lanka.
Let's hope this prediction does not come true.
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