On the 15th of March 2023, a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed into the Black Sea after two Russian Air Force SU27 Flanker jets had intercepted it. The US Air Force claimed the Reaper drone was flying over international waters when the Russians intercepted it. On the same note, the US Air Force accused the Russian pilots of dangerous flying tactics that resulted in the drones crashing into the Black Sea.
The Drone
Also known as the Predator drone, the MQ-9 drone that crashed after the interception is one of the earliest combat-capable unmanned-aerial vehicles (UAV). Under normal ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) operations, the platform can be armed with Hellfire air-to-ground missiles and Paveway II missiles.
Aerial Intercepts are a Norm
Such aerial interceptions are a norm as each nation tests the readiness of its potential adversaries. The USAF also performs similar interceptions against potential Russian intruders over international waters, while the British Royal Air Force (RAF) intercepted Russian Air Force over the North Sea.
Similar to USN PC3 Orion Intercept
The way this intercept occurred is also eerily similar to the People's Liberation Army - Navy (PLA - N) interception of a USN PC3 Orion in 2001, except that a PLA - Navy pilot perished in that incident had involved a USN crew. Accordingly, a US official mentioned that they had remotely wiped the data in the downed MQ-9 Reaper following the lessons learnt in the PC3 Orion incident, rendering the recovery of the downed drone useless.
Aggressive Flying
The US Air Force have since released recordings made by the Reaper drone to bolster their claim against Russian denials that the incident had occurred.
The released video recording does indicate aggressive flying manoeuvres by the Russian jets, does not mean that the US can censure the Russian pilots. While the interception had occurred within international waters, it is likely to have occurred within the Russian air defence identification zone, or ADIZ. A nation's ADIZ usually extends into airspace over international waters.
Russians are very aggressive in defending their airspace, as I have covered several incidents on this previously.
However, when considering that aerial intercepts are a norm rather than exception, the US Air Force contention have basis. Especially when most Russian Air Force attempted intrusions into US and their allies' air space ended with a photo of US interceptor jets escorting the intruding Russian plane out of their airspace.
Recovery of the Downed Drone
Russian Navy ships have arrived at the supposed crash site of the Reaper drone and are salvaging the wreckage. As mentioned earlier, the USAF has already remotely wiped the drone of critical data. As the USAF already remotely wiped the data onboard, the physical drone wreckage does not carry much value for Russia as they have access to similar drones that Iran had hijacked and downed previously.
The US military is unlikely able to salvage the drone's wreckage as they do not have vessels in the Black Sea; Turkish authority had prevented all foreign military ships from entering the Black Sea via the Strait of Bosphorus as they sought to de-escalate the conflict. This restriction plays both ways; this requirement had previously forced the Soviet-era Russian Navy to be able to build a much smaller and less capable aircraft carrier. However, the Turkish government have indicated that they may be allowing US Navy salvage vessels to enter the Black Sea.
Escalation of the Russo - Ukrainian Conflict
This incident is expected not to cause further escalation in the Russo - Ukrainian conflict. The Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin have reestablished high-level contacts over the encounter.
However, this will also depend on the level of rhetoric thrown at each other and if there will be any face-saving measures.
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