THE United States midterm elections this year were probably the most keenly watched off-cycle elections in recent history, as they were widely regarded as a referendum on the leadership of US President Donald Trump and his “MAGA” bloc in the Republican Party. The election took place on Tuesday, Nov. 3, in the US, which meant that results only started to be available to us here in the Philippines at about 8 a.m. on Wednesday morning, Nov. 4, due to the time difference. As of the writing of this editorial (during the afternoon of Nov. 4), the full results have not yet been tallied, but the partial results are enough to draw the conclusion that the election was a clear repudiation of Trump’s leadership.
In a historical context, it is typical for the party of the sitting president in the US to lose some power in the midterm elections, which happen every two years, whereas the election of the president happens every four years. Historically, there have only been three US midterm elections since 1934 in which the party of the president prevailed; during the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, that of John F. Kennedy in 1962 (which might not actually be counted as a “win,” since his Democratic Party lost four seats in the House but gained four in the Senate), and that of George W. Bush in 2002, in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Thus, it is important to put the results in the proper context. While the outcome of this year’s midterm elections is clearly a repudiation of Trump and what his cult-like MAGA party stands for, it may not be as severe a judgment — and consequently, may not result in as big a change in onerous US policies — as some may hope.
Nevertheless, the results seem likely to have profound implications for the US, and by extension, for the rest of the world, particularly for countries such as the Philippines that are heavily dependent geopolitically and economically on their relationships with the US. Again, with the caveat that due to publication deadlines, this commentary is being prepared before the results are fully known, it is already clear that the balance of power has shifted in the US away from Trump and his sycophants in what used to be known as the Republican Party. The Democrats have secured majority control of both the House and the Senate, as well as a majority of the governors’ seats in the 50 states. The only open question as of the time of this writing is to what degree that majority control will extend.
To our Filipino audience, which includes many of our own associates, who have family, friends, or otherwise some stake in the outcome of the US election on the ground there, the results will have far-reaching implications. We are more concerned with the implications of the US midterm election results for the Philippines’ relationship with the US, and the prospects for some of the frankly wild promises of support for development here that have been made by the Trump administration.
First of all, it must be remembered that until mid-January, when the election winners today are sworn into office, the current government of the US will remain unchanged. That is a great source of worry to many, particularly given Trump’s penchant for erratic and capricious decision-making, but there is at this point no reason to assume the worst. Most of our important recent engagement with the US is in areas that have longer timeframes, and this is perhaps an area of concern, because these programs — in particular, the highly touted “Pax Silica” initiative, and the recent pledge by the US of $5 billion in support for Philippine nuclear energy development — will certainly be carefully scrutinized and may be substantially modified or scrapped entirely by the incoming Congress. As the US has racked up record-breaking levels of debt and budget deficit during the two years of Trump’s second term, we should prepare ourselves for some of the grander plans promised by the US to come to naught, as a new Congress rethinks spending priorities.
On the other hand, we can hope for some benefits from the change in direction in the US. The onerous tariffs unilaterally (and according to US law, illegally) imposed by Trump are likely to be rolled back, providing some relief for our export sector. Likewise, we can anticipate quick action to end the illegal and costly war against Iran by the US, which will ease pressures on petrochemical supply lines, travel and our Filipino workers in the Middle East. To be clear, none of this will happen overnight, but there is light at the end of the tunnel, in a manner of speaking.
