ON Feb. 28 this year, the United States and its closest ally Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a massive air and missile bombardment of Tehran and other key cities in Iran.
US President Donald Trump boldly predicted that Epic Fury would last not more than six weeks before Iran capitulates.
Trump grossly miscalculated. What was supposed to be a six-week “skirmish” has escalated into a full-blown war that entered its sixth month last week.
Why did Trump order an attack on Iran? Initially, he believed (or was convinced reportedly by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) that Tehran was ripe for regime change. Anti-government sentiment had been seething since last year after a bloody crackdown on dissent.
Trump had warned that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.”
Trump had also claimed that Iran was planning to attack the US, and that Epic Fury was designed to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”
The biggest threat, as the White House framed it, was Iran’s growing capability to build a nuclear weapon and develop an advanced ballistic missile program.
Analysts presented a bigger geopolitical picture, saying that the Trump administration wanted to weaken Iran’s grip on global shipping and the energy market. That meant seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz and cutting off Tehran’s oil and gas shipments.
Half a year on, the motives have been blurred over as the war ebbs and flows in a tide of political uncertainty. Attempts at a ceasefire have been frustrated by Israel’s insistence to press on with its campaign to wipe out Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran’s continued harassment of shipping in the Hormuz Strait.
After unleashing missiles and drones on Iran, Trump has made a significant strategy shift; he declared last Aug. 28 “Economic D-Day,” describing it as the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country.”
Under the new initiative, the US will impose sweeping sanctions, enforcement measures and strong-arm diplomacy against countries, companies and individuals that do business with Tehran.
The objective is to “sever every economic lifeline” that sustains the Iranian government. Priority targets are nearly 60 “third-party” countries, companies, individuals and vessels involved in Iranian oil networks, cyber operations, missile-development efforts and procurement processes.
China, one of the targeted countries, has warned that the sanctions risk worsening an already volatile situation.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said sanctions will “only exacerbate tensions and escalate the situation, which is in no one’s interest.”
But countries like the Philippines that are heavily dependent on imported oil may not escape the fallout from Economic D-Day.
The new restrictions mean that the Philippines will have to pay a lot more for the petroleum products it buys from Asian trading centers like Singapore.
It comes at a time when the economy is reeling from the impact of rising domestic fuel prices, a severe currency depreciation, and the damage wrought by severe weather conditions, the most recent of which was the unprecedented rainfall unleashed by storms and a highly active southwest monsoon (habagat).
The shift from a military to an economic approach in dealing with Iran could be the US’ way of sweeping under the rug the inconvenient fact that six months of war have cost American taxpayers $37.5 billion.
For now, the key question is, will Operation D-Day choke Iran into submission?
Most likely, it won’t. Iran has survived Western sanctions for decades. While the Hormuz Strait is its main economic artery to the rest of the world, it maintains land links to Russia, Turkey, Central Asia and China that are difficult for the US to monitor.
Forcing economic giants like China to choose between Iran and the US could also “blow up the global financial system,” as one US official put it.
Enforcing the strategy may further erode US influence in the Middle East, as its allies decide to deal with Iran on their own terms.
Six months into the Gulf war, the US is running out of good options, and Iran continues to thumb its nose at Trump.
In a new bid to “sever every economic lifeline” that sustains the Iranian government, the US will impose sweeping sanctions, measures and strong-arm diplomacy against countries and entities that do business with Tehran.
