The El Niño weather phenomenon is back: "El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27," the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a statement on Thursday.
With unusually high sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the regularly recurring weather phenomenon had been foreshadowed for months. This is accompanied by concerns about more extreme weather, including droughts, floods and a potentially record-breaking global average temperature.
"There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," the NOAA added.
Last El Niño in 2023-24
This naturally occurring weather phenomenon, which typically occurs every two to seven years, was last observed in 2023-24. That was one of the five strongest El Niños since records began and contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record since the industrial era (1850–1900), as measured by the global average temperature.
An El Niño exacerbates the consequences of human-induced climate change. The effects are felt in the form of droughts and floods in regions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. For Europe, the consequences are limited.
