THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its Philippine rice production forecast due to expectations of a stronger El Niño and persistently high fertilizer costs.
In its latest Grain and Feed Update on Sept. 23 and released Friday, the USDA projected Philippine rice output at 12.25 million metric tons (MMT) for the current marketing year, down from the previous 12.36 MMT.
El Niño — a climate pattern that brings hotter and drier conditions — and high fertilizer costs are expected to weigh on planting, although improved reservoir levels in August and September could support irrigation during the dry season.
“Drier weather conditions during the May-June planting season, coupled with elevated fertilizer costs, were expected to limit growth in rough rice (palay) production,” the USDA said.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) issued El Niño Advisory No. 4 on Sept. 6, confirming that a moderate to strong El Niño was present in the tropical Pacific.
Pagasa expects El Niño to persist through the first half of 2027. It could reach very strong levels in the coming months, before peaking toward the end of 2026.
The USDA also reduced its forecast for the harvested area to 4.65 million hectares from its previous estimate of 4.78 million ha.
Rice consumption, meanwhile, is projected to rise by 0.3 percent to 17.65 MMT from 17.60 MMT, driven by population growth and stronger demand in urban areas.
The report forecast Philippine rice imports to reach 5.20 MMT. The Department of Agriculture (DA) said on Sept. 1 that the country might need to import as much as 5 MMT to maintain adequate stocks amid storms, monsoon rains and the developing El Niño.
The DA noted it would not restrict rice imports as it seeks to build buffer stocks ahead of the expected dry spell.
Latest Bureau of Plant Industry data showed that rice imports reached 3.89 MMT as of Sept. 17, up 18.96 percent from 3.27 MMT in the same period last year.
Based on the DA’s Bantay Presyo monitoring as of Sept. 25, imported special rice sold for P60 per kilogram; premium rice, P55; well-milled rice, P48; and regular-milled rice, P45.
