It is "very possible" that PAS (Parti Islam Se-Malaysia) could govern Malaysia one day, according to an expert SEA political analyst. This potential shift in power reflects the strength of conservative forces in the country and the historical voting patterns of Malaysians, who have no other choice but to vote for PAS as an alternative. As Malaysia continues to navigate its political landscape, the likelihood of PAS gaining significant influence remains a key topic of discussion among analysts.
Bridget Welsh was the political analyst who said that it is ‘very possible’ that PAS could govern Malaysia one day. For context, Bridget Welsh is an independent political scientist and scholar with over three and a half decades of experience living in and analyzing the social, political, and economic developments in ASEAN and Malaysia. She has authored numerous books and advises companies and NGOs on navigating this important and dynamic region. The books she authored include The End of Umno?, Awakening: The Abdullah Badawi Years in Malaysia and REGIME RESILIENCE IN MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE.
Bridget Welsh was invited to give her thoughts on the show ‘Do More - Take Charge of Your Life’ by Khoo Hsu Chuang. As Bridget Welsh provides advice to companies and NGOs, the interviewer, Khoo Hsu Chuang, asked her whether the groups she works with request forecasts for Malaysia. If so, what does she tell them about Malaysia's future? She opines that there are 3 things that she would emphasize when it comes to Malaysia – the number one being that Malaysia is likely to continue to have stability but it may not be under the government you like or you choose for but Malaysians as a society are used to being comfortable. They are very uncomfortable with unknowns in contrast to other countries and so the conservative pro-stability forces in this country are very strong.
At this point, the interviewer interrupted her and questioned her about her earlier message, which stated that Malaysia is likely to have stability, but it may not be under the government you like/choose, and conservative forces are very strong. He asked whether she meant that PAS would eventually be in power. She responded that it is "very possible" and rated the likelihood as a 7 out of 10, with 10 being the most likely and 0 being the least likely. She also predicted that PAS could govern Malaysia within three years. She noted that PAS has a high chance of becoming part of the government based on survey data and electoral trends, as they have performed extremely well at the state level. However, she noted that PAS would not govern alone; Malaysia would have a coalition government. She reminded the interviewer and viewers that PAS was part of the government under Perikatan Nasional during Muhyiddin Yassin's tenure as Prime Minister.
According to her, the question for the next election is what the opposition’s alternative will be. Malaysians have historically voted for one to both sides, but now, with a coalition government, people are wondering who they will vote for. PAS benefits from being the ONLY opposition party as part of Perikatan Nasional, raising the question of what are the other alternatives. If people want to vote against the government, they will likely vote for PAS. She emphasized that voters are not necessarily voting for PAS but are voting against the government, a pattern seen in many elections. For example, voters previously voted against Barisan Nasional for the same reason.
After watching the interview, I couldn't help but agree with her that Malaysians lack ‘alternative parties’ to vote for if they want to vote against the government. Unlike in the United States, where multiple parties are available as alternatives, Malaysia has limited options. For instance, in the upcoming U.S. election, if you don't want to vote for Joe Biden, a Democrat, you can instead vote for Donald Trump, a Republican. Moreover, if you believe neither the Democratic nor Republican parties are up for the task, you have the option to vote for the Libertarian Party or the Green Party for a change. The Libertarian Party and the Green Party are known as 'third parties' A third party in the U.S. is any political party other than the two major ones: the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. Although third parties rarely win elections, they often influence national politics by highlighting issues that the major parties (Democratic and Republican) have previously neglected. Not only that but if you want to vote against the current government (Democratic Party at the moment), you can choose to vote for them instead of the Republican Party.
Personally, I think the possibility of PAS governing Malaysia one day, as highlighted by Bridget Welsh, underscores a significant issue in Malaysian politics: the lack of third parties. This situation could very well mean that anyone wanting to vote against the government will end up voting for PAS, leading to PAS winning the elections and subsequently ruling Malaysia. The importance of having third parties cannot be overstated. As Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party's presidential candidate for 2012 and 2016, put it, "We (third parties) are giving a chance for people to VOTE FOR SOMETHING as opposed to the LESSER OF TWO EVILS." By providing more choices, third parties play a crucial role in broadening the political landscape and ensuring that voters are not limited to a binary choice. For Malaysia, the introduction and growth of additional political parties could offer a more diverse and representative democratic process, ultimately benefiting the nation as a whole.
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