MANILA, Philippines — The country could face renewed pressure on rice prices and food security as the risk of a very strong El Niño continued to rise, Metrobank Wealth Insights said, potentially disrupting agricultural output across major rice-exporting countries.
“The likelihood of an intense El Niño has increased, potentially stoking consumer price gains and impacting investments,” Metrobank said in its latest market analysis.
It stressed that the probability of El Niño occurring has increased to 82 percent for May to July 2026 and could climb further to 96 percent from December 2026 to February 2027.
It added that a “very strong” El Niño event, defined as an index of at least 2 degrees Celsius, has also risen to 37 percent.
“Peak intensity is expected later this year,” it said.
