One of Sir Keir Starmer’s best performances was the speech he gave to signal the premature end of his premiership. So often caricatured as an unemotional technocrat, the moment of his resignation revealed a more emotionally charged individual, a proud man who served his party, his country and his family with formidable dedication, but has been brutally treated. It was telling that he finally welled up when he talked about his “rock” – his wife Victoria – and his children. He deserves thanks for his service and what he has, in all fairness, achieved in domestic and, more emphatically, foreign affairs.
Sir Keir is a human being, a fact which feels like it is sometimes missing from the grotesque misrepresentation of him on social media, and even sections of the so-called mainstream media. As such, he must be hurt by his treatment in recent weeks, culminating in Donald Trump pre-announcing his resignation. It must be painful, and Sir Keir did well to get through the ordeal without quite shedding a tear.
He himself alluded to “the proudest moment of my life”, when he walked up Downing Street just under two years ago, and, at that same spot and behind the same podium, promised the British people his administration would “tread more lightly on your lives” because “one of the great strengths of this nation has always been our ability to navigate a way through to calmer waters”.
Sir Keir, who often spoke of his profound sense of duty, rendered his greatest services to the country by (mostly) keeping the UK out of Donald Trump’s illegal and unwinnable war in Iran and rebuilding relations with the EU.
Nonetheless, Sir Keir was a disappointment, the shortest-serving Labour prime minister in history. He used Monday’s address to exaggerate his achievements in office and skate over some grievous errors of judgement.
So much of the “offer” Labour made at the 2024 general election has not aged well. At various points boosting economic growth has been presented as the fundamental task or “mission” of Sir Keir’s government. For one reason or another – some entirely out of his hands, many not – that robust, sustainable economic growth has not yet materialised.
Rather, the cost of living crisis has ground on. Popular discontent correspondingly intensified, exacerbated by insufficient progress in gaining control of migration and improving public services.
There were unforgivable errors, including the appointment of Peter Mandelson in Washington and political clumsiness, such as the move to cut pensioners’ winter fuel allowance. Botching welfare reform and failing to invest in defence were even more momentous blunders. Losing his defence secretary and the armed forces minister on this point of principle was probably the moment when the end of the Starmer era was ordained.
Power is now ebbing away from Sir Keir just as powerfully as it flowed towards him on that bright, confident morning in July 2024. With no one predicting such a turn of events two years ago, Andy Burnham, at that time happily in his second term as mayor of Greater Manchester, was not even dreamt of as a successor. He had, after all, been beaten for the leadership in 2010 by Ed Miliband, and, as more of a shock, Jeremy Corbyn in 2015.
Yet, like Boris Johnson, another high-profile city mayor, he has used his regional base to establish a profile and a reputation that enabled him to challenge for the very highest office. He won his Makerfield seat with an impressive 20-point margin over Reform UK, and a coronation now seems a foregone conclusion. Wes Streeting, a fluent rival who seemed desperate for a “battle of ideas”, now dismisses the notion as spending “the summer exaggerating small differences”.
As a source close to him recently said, the “soft Left always prefers a stitch-up to a fight”, and, unfortunately, Mr Streeting’s retirement from the contest before it starts suggests that this pugilistic social democrat is also up for a stitch-up – under the right conditions. The Treasury, Mr Streeting may argue, is suitable consolation for shelving his ambitions, and if he doesn’t get it then there’ll be trouble. Such are the egos involved that there may be Burnham-Streeting friction even if Mr Streeting does succeed Rachel Reeves.
Rishi Sunak might appear an unlikely source of wisdom for Mr Burnham, but he has experience of the job and of managing a divided party. He tells us that a prime minister's first day in Downing Street is when they wield the most power. That is the time when Mr Burnham must initiate his most important plans – for economic growth, welfare reform, a fresh start on defence, and, yes, levelling up the regions. Mr Sunak suggests that Mr Burnham will have to be in “permanent campaign” mode. Ousting Sir Keir is only the beginning of Mr Burnham’s struggles, and may well prove the easiest.
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