WHILE Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah are very much expected to remain under the PAS-Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition in the forthcoming state polls, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan are poised to be affected by the green wave phenomenon that has culminated in a few shocking outcomes during the recently concluded 15^th General Election (GE15).

Although on paper – at least – the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) partnership seems to possess formidable strength to defend the three states, outcome from the delayed Padang Serai parliamentary election whereby incumbent PKR-PH was toppled by the PAS-PN coalition is evident that reality on the ground is different.

This is especially so given that the appointment of UMNO president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as Deputy Prime Minister in addition to the antics and behaviour of newly minted Cabinet ministers would have profound effect on PH supporters, according to the Darulnaim Research Centre.

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“Taking the Johor state election as a case study, PH was clearly boycotted by its supporters when the coalition only garnered 20.48% of the popular votes, coming in third place behind BN (43.11%) and PN (24.04%),” revealed the think tank’s political analyst Ahmad Fahmi Mokhtar in PAS’ mouthpiece Harakah Daily.

“In the next six state elections, the latent voice of boycott is likely to emerge at the ballot boxes, repeating what happened to PH in the Johor state election (on March 12 this year).”

While BN also cannot be comfortable, Ahmad Fahmi said the coalition’s very act of merging with PH-DAP is seen as turning its back on the wishes and principles of UMNO’s grassroots struggle.

“The trend of UMNO supporters leaving UMNO is continuing. What’s more, they can’t resist being dragged along with the superficiality that comes from PH ministers,” he rationalised.

“Because of that, BN can no longer rely on the votes of loyal members such as in GE14, the Melaka state election (Nov 20, 2021), Johor state election and the GE15 because some loyal members with strong sense of political struggle are perceiving the UMNO leadership as having betrayed the UMNO-BN struggle.”

All-in-all, Ahmad Fahmi contended that if BN had fared the worst throughout its history in GE15, “the party is on course to remain history in the next national poll (GE16).”

“The situation now is such that while PH and BN want to cling on to each other, both are being boycotted and abandoned by their own loyal supporters,” he projected.

“The advantage as a government seems to turn into a weakness and a threat to PH-BN. For example, (Economic Affairs Minister) Rafizi (Ramli) was looked up to previously but once he became a minister, he was not only looked down upon but was totally ignored.”

Added Ahmad Fahmi: “Eventually, the performance of (PH-BN) Cabinet ministers will further amplify the hidden voices that will boycott PH-BN in GE16.” – Dec 27, 2022

“Voices to boycott PH-BN partnership growing louder as state polls draw closer””