A last-minute victory for President Donald Trump is unlikely to sway voters ahead of the fast-approaching midterms, according to a new Politico poll.
Most U.S. voters said they would not be more inclined to vote Republican even if the Iran war suddenly ended or gas prices fell sharply.
That sentiment was especially pronounced among Democrats and undecided voters, according to the survey, conducted during the first week of October.
The findings add to mounting evidence that suggests Republicans could face steep election losses, potentially handing Democrats control of both the House and Senate. Surveys have consistently shown opposition to the Iran war and frustration over the cost-of-living. Trump’s approval rating also remains near historic lows.
“There’s nothing that Trump can do, and frankly, even if he did something, no one would believe it anyway at this point,” an unnamed GOP operative told Politico. “I think a lot of the die is already cast,” added pollster Mike Noble.
In the new poll, which sampled 2,001 U.S. adults, just 10 percent of undecided voters said they would be more likely to vote for a Republican if gas prices dropped by $1 a gallon. Some 29 percent said a gas price drop would have no real impact, while 57 percent signaled they were unsure.
The largest share of Democrats, 46 percent, said such a drop in fuel prices would have no real impact, while 35 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for the GOP.
On Monday, the average national price for a gallon of gas stood at $4.35, up from $2.98 two days before the Iran war broke out, according to AAA.
In the new survey, respondents were also asked how a sudden announcement by Trump that the war had ended would affect their vote.
Just 9 percent of undecided voters said an end to the Iran war would make them more likely to vote Republican, while 29 percent said it would have no effect. Among Democrats, 10 percent said it would make them more likely to vote Republican; 46 percent said it would make no difference; and 36 percent said it would make them less likely to do so.
Only 28 percent of overall voters said an abrupt end to the war would make them more likely to vote for Republicans.
The war has stretched on for seven months with no clear end in sight, leaving at least 18 U.S. service members dead and costing taxpayers tens of billions of dollars.
Even a massive drop in inflation would do little to turn things around for Republicans, the poll found.
Just 12 percent of undecided voters and 11 percent of Democrats said a drop in inflation to a five-year low would make them more likely to vote Republican in the midterms. Meanwhile, majorities in both groups said they were unsure, that it would make no difference or that it would make them less likely to support the GOP.
U.S. inflation accelerated in August as renewed fighting in the Middle East sent gas prices soaring. That trend is expected to continue in September, with neither side in the Iran conflict signaling a willingness to give ground.
A Republican National Convention spokesperson took issue with the poll, accusing Politico of “cherry-picking data to fit the media’s manufactured narrative that the sky is falling for Republicans, which is simply not the case.”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said: “No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them.”
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