PETALING JAYA: With the largest number in Malaysian history – 945 candidates, including 108 independents – vying for the 222 parliamentary seats in the 15th general election (GE15), Malaysians will vote only for those who have a real chance of forming the next government, said National Council of Professors senior fellow Prof Datuk Dr Jeniri Amir.
He added he is convinced about 90% of independent candidates will lose their deposits.
The Election Commission (EC) said the 108 independent candidates also made history as the highest number to stand in a general election. In GE13 and GE14, there were 79 and 24 independent candidates respectively contesting for parliamentary seats.
In GE14, the EC received a total of 2,333 nomination papers during the one-hour nomination period, of which 687 were for 222 parliamentary seats and 1,646 for 505 state seats.
“This is going to be an interesting general election where you have more blocs and parties contesting. There are also five to 10-cornered fights for a seat, and this may cause votes to be split among the top coalitions such as Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH), Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) and Perikatan Nasional (PN),” said Jeniri.
“There is a reason coalitions were formed. They want the numbers to form a government. Independent candidates will not get Malaysians to vote for them en masse.
“Remember also that some of these independent candidates may have been planted just to split votes. If you think about it, why would people waste their ballots on independent candidates?
“Look at the last election where Azwan Ali, the brother of Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and a well-known celebrity, contested for the Bukit Antarabangsa state seat. He garnered 90 votes, mostly from his friends and family. This shows that Malaysians would not vote based on popularity. They will vote for candidates with good credentials.”
Another political analyst and professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, James Chin, said on paper, GE15 can look competitive as there are multi-cornered fights for some seats.
“Independent candidates can be split into two categories. First are those who have been dropped by their party or individuals who are very popular in their constituencies.
“Former PKR member and former Batu MP Tian Chua will contest in Batu as an independent because he was dropped by his party. He has no chance of winning in GE15 as he does not have the full machinery at his disposal to sustain the campaign period. Also, the majority of Malaysians will look for a party’s flag on the ballot paper.
“The second category of independent candidates are those who contest just for fame. Social media influencer Nur Fathiah Syazwana Shaharuddin, who is popularly known as ‘Cleopatra’ will also contest in Batu. She will profit from GE15 and gain more social media followers after Nov 19. She will traject her business from there,” he said.
The Batu parliamentary seat will see fresh faces, a former MP for the constituency and the incumbent fighting it out in a 10-cornered fight.
The 10 candidates are Tian Chua, Nur Fathiah, incumbent MP P. Prabakaran, MIC vice-president Datuk A. Kohilan Pillay (BN), Naganathan Pillai (Parti Warisan), Azhar Yahya (PN), Mohd Zulkifli Abdul Fattah from Parti Rakyat Malaysia and three other independents.
The EC has set Nov 19 as polling day while Nov 15 is for early voting.
The GE15 electoral roll has a list of 21,173,638 voters. Of the number, 20,905,366 are ordinary voters, 146,737 are army personnel and their spouses, 118,794 are police personnel, including those from the General Operations Force and their spouses, and 2,741 are absentee voters abroad.