Wales is going to the polls on May 7 to elect members to the Senedd (Welsh parliament). And the results could bring big change to the country. The polls are suggesting that this election will result in the biggest shake-up to the political landscape since the creation of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999.
Labour looks likely to lose significant electoral support, with Plaid Cymru and Reform vying to replace it as the largest party in the Senedd. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are hoping to retain a parliamentary presence, while other parties (such as the Greens) may well secure their first ever seats in the Senedd.
The outcome of the election is made even more uncertain by changes to how elections work for the Senedd. A proportional electoral system has been introduced, to elect a larger number of representatives (from 60 to 96 members), who will represent 16 new constituencies.
In this context of political uncertainty, the Welsh Election Study 2026 has been asking people what they think about the Senedd election, and democracy more broadly in Wales. My team surveyed more than 10,000 people across Wales, two-thirds of whom told us that they’re interested in the election.
Most felt that who wins the election will make a difference to how Wales is governed. Most voters understand that different political parties offer alternative agendas for running the country, and that they have an important choice to make on polling day.
And yet, while some are approaching this election with a sense of hope, the vast majority are much less positive. When we asked people to describe in a word how they feel about the election, sentiments such as disappointment, frustration and worry were among the main ones.
This reaction is striking in a campaign where many of the political parties are framing the election as a positive opportunity for change.
We also found that most people do not know what changes have been made to the workings of the election this time around. There is also a mixed picture in terms of the electorate’s understanding of what the role of the Senedd actually is.
Most people knew that the Welsh government is responsible for policies such as roads and housing, but almost two-thirds thought it was also in charge of policing, when this is actually the responsibility of the UK government.
There’s also a clear and consistent age dimension to this knowledge gap. Only 28% of respondents aged 16-24 knew that the Welsh government is responsible for the NHS in Wales, compared to 62.7% of those aged 65 and over.
Disillusionment with Welsh democracy
There are also signs of a broader disconnect between voters and political institutions in Wales. Most people told us that they don’t have much trust in government. While this sentiment was most strongly felt in relation to the UK government, it was also expressed in relation to Welsh and local government.
Most people do not feel that they have much influence over decisions at any level. Our data indicates that many Welsh voters feel disillusioned with democratic politics, and don’t feel that their lives are getting any better or easier as a result of the Welsh government’s policies.
We’ve seen evidence of this disconnect with politics in the number of people who have turned out to vote in previous devolved elections. This has never surpassed 50% of eligible voters, and has consistently been lower than turnout for UK general elections in Wales.
The lack of enthusiasm that our data has uncovered towards this Senedd election is one reason to expect turnout to remain low this time around. But what could help buck this trend is how close the contest appears to be and the uncertainty around the outcome. Some voters may be mobilised to cast their ballot because they feel that doing so could really make a difference to the result.
The challenge ahead
Once the next Welsh government has been formed, attention will shift to implementing the manifesto promises made during the campaign. Tackling the big policy challenges facing Wales – such as long NHS waiting lists and low educational outcomes – is critical to rebuilding people’s trust in the Senedd and the Welsh government.
There’s much more that needs be done to address the disconnect that many people in Wales feel with the democratic process. Better education and information around politics is critical – everyone in Wales must understand how the country is run, and how elections to the Senedd work.
There is plenty of international evidence that giving people a direct role in policy development and decision-making between elections – through initiatives such as participatory budgeting or citizens’ assemblies – can increase voters’ confidence in the democratic system.
Our research gives us a useful insight into how people are thinking about and experiencing electoral democracy in Wales right now. Strengthening Welsh democracy in the longer term also means thinking about how we talk about, and practise, democracy in between elections.
Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.