Warning over sharp rise in food prices – how much the weekly shop could increase by

WorldBusiness & Finance
1 Apr 2026 • 5:55 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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  • The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has significantly increased its food inflation forecast for this year from 3.2 per cent to between 9 and 10 per cent, citing the Iran war as the primary cause.
  • This projected rise could add an estimated £588 annually to the average UK household's grocery bill.
  • Key factors contributing to the inflation include an 80 per cent increase in diesel costs, potential rises in fertiliser prices, supply chain disruptions, and lost sales due to cancelled shipments to the Middle East.
  • Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to meet with supermarket chiefs, including Sainsbury's and Tesco, to discuss the impact of these anticipated price rises on the cost of living.
  • The FDF's revised figures are based on assumptions that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to cargo traffic within weeks and that commodity production will normalise within a year, as has been suggested this week.

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