Around 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the Government’s welfare cuts despite Sir Keir Starmer being forced into a partial U-turn.
The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals.
Modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions said the estimate does not include any “potential positive impact” from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced last week that changes to the personal independence payment (Pip) will only apply to new claimants from November 2026, and ministers also rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit after 126 Labour MPs signed an amendment that would have effectively killed the Government’s Bill.
The changes will reduce the amount of money the reforms will save, adding to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ headaches as she seeks to balance the books for day-to-day spending.