The United States and Iran have signed an interim deal to end their war, setting the table for two months of talks aimed at resolving long-standing disputes.
President Donald Trump presented the agreement on Wednesday as a “major win” for the US, extending the ceasefire agreement in place since April so the two sides can address the ongoing issue of Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, however, has called the memorandum of understanding (MoU) a victory for Tehran.
“Everything we sought to achieve through military action, we obtained several times over through negotiation,” he boasted on state TV, just as Trump faced growing criticism at home and abroad for giving Iran too much after starting a deeply unpopular war in February.
US hawks and supporters of Israel have variously called the agreement “a catastrophic capitulation” to Iran and a “disaster” that achieves none of Trump’s original goals.
Despite the pause in hostilities, major obstacles remain including Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Iran vowing to charge fees to use the Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Trump has already threatened to restart the conflict if the window for talks ends without a deal.
Below we look at the main obstacles to a more long-term peace and what happens now the documents have been signed.
What happens now the deal has been signed
The United States and Iran signed a memorandum to end the war on Wednesday but are still expected in Switzerland on Friday for an official ceremony.
Within that document, Iran undertakes not to build nuclear weapons, reaffirming a vow it had made for decades.
It also agrees to the on-site “down-blending” of its stockpile of enriched uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog - although Trump had wanted to take it out of the country, which Iran has rejected.
The agreement then makes provisions for Lebanon, where Israel has been clashing with Hezbollah since the start of March. Under the framework deal, the fighting there was supposed to end on Sunday.
That clause presents an immediate threat to the coming weeks of deliberation as Israel - which was not involved in the negotiations - continues to occupy southern Lebanon. Hezbollah says Iran promised not to finalise the US deal unless Israel backs off.
Dr Lindsay Newman, associate fellow with Chatham House, told The Independent that this commitment is a “fundamental tension” in the document to play out over the initial sixty-day extension period.
She said it was “a very real scenario” that if the ongoing fighting crosses a certain threshold, it could threaten progress in talks. Then again, the actors involved have so far been willing to overlook some “low level” activity, she noted.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, senior fellow at foundation for the defence of democracies, said that Lebanon was unlikely to derail the peace process “because the Iranians have got such a good deal that they won’t want to endanger it by overreach in response to Israeli actions in Lebanon”.
Once the agreement has been officially signed, and assuming the Lebanon conflict does not upend the process, the US and Iran will have 60 days to work through their dispute and bring about a final end to the war.
Analysts say the terms appear to have handed Iran the high ground to head into negotiations, while the US is on course to end the war without achieving its stated objectives.
The deal also makes reference to establishing a much-criticised $300bn investment fund for Iran to rebuild, though without a specific timeframe for when or how it will be set up. Trump has been keen to stress the US will not contribute to it.
Heading into talks: ‘Advantage Iran’
The 14-point interim agreement may be the first step on a long road to peace but critics, including Trump’s own Republican allies, believe it favours Iran.
Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor at the school of security at King’s College London, said that while Trump will present the memorandum as a victory because it reopens Hormuz, pauses the war and creates the appearance of momentum, Iran goes into talks in a “substantively” stronger position than it was before the war.
“It has not surrendered its enrichment programme. It has not accepted disarmament of its missile force,” he said.
“It has not sacrificed the Axis of Resistance. It has secured language on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and it has put sanctions relief, oil waivers, frozen assets and a major economic rehabilitation package into the framework.”
The US, meanwhile, went into the conflict with four objectives: Iran’s nuclear programme, access to ballistic missiles, support for regional proxies like Hezbollah, and human rights. The Strait of Hormuz became a fifth objective during the war when Iran blocked it, notes Fitton-Brown.
But this agreement only reopens the Strait and leaves the nuclear issue to be resolved at a later date. Trump has backed down over Iran’s ballistic missiles, saying it would be “unfair” to restrict the country’s ability to defend itself.
There is no evidence of fracturing among Tehran’s regional proxies and Iran’s protesting civilian population has fallen out of international view since Trump vowed “help is on the way” in January.
“Iran’s remaining leadership ... must be feeling quite surprised with the turn in its fortunes,” Dr Newman said. “Just a few months ago Iran was facing economic collapse, domestic protests, then the loss of the Ayatollah and many in the leadership structure.
“Now, the MoU outlines sanctions relief, unfreezing of vast frozen assets and a development fund. This is probably as good as the regime could have hoped for after a bruising conflict.”
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