ON Feb. 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine in pursuit of its revanchist dreams, the Kremlin expected two things: a puny resistance from Kyiv and Kremlin’s puppets within the Ukrainian polity in full control of the capital in a week, at most. Kyiv did not fall in one week but by the end of 2022 not one hopeful, pro-Ukraine military analyst held out hope that the resistance would last at that pace of attrition and destruction from the Russian military juggernaut. Only the underwhelming US assistance was believed to be preventing Kyiv’s total collapse.
As late as a few months ago, US President Donald Trump was urging Ukraine to make peace with Russia — on terms set by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Ukraine holds no cards,” Trump famously said.
Today, while Ukraine is still struggling mightily to cope with the economic and military strains of the long war with Russia, the consensus from Western analysts and military strategists is one of optimism for Ukraine. The consensus? The tide of the war is changing in favor of Ukraine. Innovation and the adoption of new war technologies have turned Ukraine into a prodigious, prolific manufacturer of cheap drones. Cheap but super lethal drones.
What seemed impossible a few months back is now possible.
Drones that can strike deep into the Urals; one recently hit the Lukoil facility there hard and another struck the Tuapse oil complex for the fourth time. Drones that defenestrate critical war-related infrastructure and military bases. Drones, called “angry birds” that strike fear in the Black Sea. Drones that can effectively debilitate counter-drones from Russia at a rate of 75 percent. The most effective and cheapest drones guided by algorithms of precision and lethality.
Ukrainian drones are so lethal and effective that Gulf states being rained in by cheap drones from Iran are seeking Ukraine’s help. Recently, a Japanese company entered into a joint venture with Ukraine to produce a $2,500 drone that is projected to be as effective and lethal as the ones in Ukraine’s production lines. The name sounds like a locally sold Japanese SUV: Terra drones.
As Peter Magyar ousted Putin ally Viktor Orban in the recent Hungarian parliamentary elections, the European Union will now unlock more than €90 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which was put on hold by Orban on Putin’s bidding. This year, more than €46 billion of that will be released: €28.3 billion euro in military assistance and €16.7 billion in financial assistance. What the US under Trump failed to deliver in terms of assistance to Ukraine, the EU is filling that void.
The crushing defeat of Orban after 16 years in power is another event celebrated by the democratic world because it was deemed impossible just a year ago. Orban had been the toast of illiberal governments worldwide, with US political conservatives declaring Orban’s Hungary as “the model” upon which the US under Trump should be governed. Contemptuous of democratic norms, changing the constitution at will, muzzling the independent press through coercion and massive funding for state-run, pro-Orban media entities. And a form of economy that lavished favors, contracts and franchises on family and political cronies. OK, it started in the Philippines during the Marcos Sr. years. It is called “crony capitalism.”
Do you recall the state of the Trump opposition at this time last year? It was like little “Davids” battling Trump the Goliath and the spineless Supreme Court and Congress enabling Trump’s efforts to tear down America’s guardrails against autocracy and executive overreach.
Today, Trump’s favorability polling is under water, with the lowest approval rating of all presidents in modern US history. The midterm elections in November will be a “bloodbath” for the Republican Party, according to the most reputable pollsters, with Democrats projected to take control of the House of Representatives and with the Senate in play. At this same time last year, no respectable pollster gave the Democrats a chance to win the Senate. What seemed impossible last year is now possible today, given Trump’s massive unpopularity.
Reputable Philippine polling entities are now saying the same thing about the 2028 presidential elections. The polling at the time of the year last year that unanimously suggested the inevitability of a Sara Duterte presidency has been downgraded to “still leading but beatable.” The big climbdown for the Duterte princeling, which seemed impossible a year ago, is tied to the current impeachment complaint against her. The biggest of the revelations made by the House panel that heard the impeachment resolution involved an issue that seemed to trail Sara Duterte: allegations involving not just money but money of the mind-boggling kind. And worse, drug money allegedly flowing into her bank accounts.
The House justice committee said it found “probable cause” to impeach her, adding that there are 106 votes to pass the committee-approved impeachment vote in plenary.
Showing some spine, the Supreme Court reinstated Deputy Ombudsman Arthur Carandang a few days back. Carandang was fired by then-president Rodrigo Duterte early in his term as the deputy ombudsman was about to confirm allegations that millions or billions of money were in the bank accounts of the various members of the Duterte family, from the former president to the heir apparent Sara Duterte.
Carandang’s confirmation of the Duterte family’s multiple bank accounts, tens of millions of which allegedly came from a drug lord, will be Sara Duterte’s worst nightmare.
