BEFORE the headline topic, a strategic communications lesson for House of Representatives Deputy Speakers Jay Khonghun and Paolo Ortega. The two members of the House’s “Young Guns” bloc contend that Vice President Sara Duterte declining to personally answer charges at her Senate impeachment trial makes the public think she is guilty.
That, of course, depends on whether the public actually cares about the trial. In fact, in the July survey of leading pollster Pulse Asia, just 1.2 percent of respondents want President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to tackle the impeachment trial in his fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) on July 27.
Immensely more important for Filipinos is the fight against corruption (29.8 percent), particularly probing and prosecuting those involved in the multibillion-peso flood control scandal (18.9 percent). They probably include many of Khongkun and Ortega’s Congress colleagues and those who voted to impeach Duterte twice and got huge allocations ahead of the 2025 midterm elections, and outlays labeled “for later release” this year.
And given Duterte’s mammoth public support, with her Pulse Asia approval and trust ratings both around 55 percent, appearing in the Senate would only get more Filipinos watching the prosecution attack her.
Similarly, then-presidential candidate Benigno Aquino III, way ahead in voter surveys, skirted campaign debates for the 2010 elections, since his presence would only attract his supporters — and give his opponents bigger debate audiences.
So, Honorable Deputy Speakers, better for Vice President Duterte to defer her crowd-drawing presence till her defense refutes the impeachment charges.
What flood scammers?
Turning to the headline topic, the Pulse Asia poll on issues Filipinos want covered in the SONA on Monday afternoon singles out by a large margin the fight against corruption as the top public concern, most especially investigating and charging those behind the flood-control scam.
And that will be one issue largely missing in action when President Marcos opens the joint session of Congress at the Batasang Pambansa. Sure, there will be some reference to corruption, if only because the issue produced the most memorable line in the 2025 SONA.
“Mahiya naman kayo,” said the Chief Executive then, shaming scammers pocketing countless millions or billions in bribes. Afterward, he launched a whistleblower’s website and listed selected flood-control undertakings tainted with payoffs, substandard work and even “ghost” projects hardly done, yet certified finished and fully paid.
But today, many Filipinos are wondering if the fight against corruption has been shelved, except for Duterte’s impeachment and the cases used to jail or pressure senators opposing the administration’s political agenda.
The Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI), created by Marcos to probe public-works graft in the past decade, closed in January after two of its three commissioners quit.
House and Senate hearings on flood anomalies have also mostly ceased, despite explosive testimony from former bodyguards of alleged top scam operator and ousted former House Budget Committee chairman Elizaldy “Zaldy” Co. The 19 former troopers recounted with pictures hundreds of millions of pesos in alleged suitcased bribes delivered to homes of top officials, including President Marcos.
Don’t expect much about such allegations in the SONA. Public outrage has waned even after the ICI went bust, while pro-administration media downplayed the 19 luggage bribery witnesses. And there is nil pressure to bring Co back after a brief flurry to extradite him from Czechia.
The administration and its political and media allies have successfully shifted attention to the impeachment trial, even though the value of Duterte’s alleged anomalies is a tiny fraction of flood-control irregularities, which fill vast rooms and dozens of suitcases with illicit cash.
What if wars get worse?
Next on the SONA missing list are very grave risks from the global situation of escalating war and intensifying economic crises. President Marcos said the SONA would include “effective” government responses to worldwide challenges.
“I will make sure people know all of the things that we have done to navigate this very difficult period in our history, where we are buffeted by all of these external forces,” he told the media at an event in Pampanga on July 24. “Our response has been good. And we have had to make adjustments, but those adjustments have been effective.”
So far, these measures respond to the current crunch in petroleum supplies and costs. But the wars in Europe and the Middle East are feared to worsen severely with new attacks by the United States and Iran, possibly scuttling their ceasefire agreement.
Moscow has also threatened to hit European nations providing Ukraine with projectiles and drones, their components, satellite targeting, and secret operators to hit defense, energy and civilian facilities deep in Russia.
Seasoned experts like the University of Chicago’s Prof. John Mearsheimer have warned that war escalation risks in both conflicts are rising.
Europe’s ruling elites facing war fatigue among their citizenry could provoke Russian attacks to reignite fear and hatred of Russia and shore up public support for hawkish leaders and their policies of military buildup and economic sanctions, despite heavy economic costs.
And Mearsheimer says America could repeat in Iran the 1960s Vietnam War escalation even after Washington knew it couldn’t defeat Hanoi. This may be what Trump’s July 24 emergency warning heralds.
In both Europe and Middle East scenarios, global economic fallout would be even worse than at present, with global depression feared. Add to that the imperative to help overseas Filipino workers if war expands and threatens them and their jobs.
Peace in Asia
With military clashes and buildup escalating in Europe and the Middle East, Asia may, in fact, be spared from war, largely because Western armaments are funneling to the current conflicts.
In addition, Asia now sees how destructive superpower machinations and rivalry are, so the region is even more averse to armed alliances like the US-led blocs in Europe and the Middle East.
And with Singapore, Thailand, East Timor and Vietnam leading the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the coming years, the regional bloc would hold fast even more to neutrality and peacebuilding.
Very hopeful, but don’t look for that in the SONA.