LAST Wednesday night found me unprepared for the rolling brownouts that left many parts of the city with no electricity at the height of extreme summer heat on the same night the Senate siege was ongoing. I was one of those who “didn’t get the memo.” Or so I thought. But it seems the announcements were released simultaneously or late when power already went out. For context, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) recorded a dangerous heat index level on May 13 at 43 C at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Pasay City.
How does one even prepare for a possible new normal of rotating brownouts? People still remember the power problems after 1986 to the early 1990s. I did not experience that. I believe people made do with generator sets and just dealt with it. This was before the internet and the boom of malls around the metro. In my own work and lived experience, preparing for the unfortunate possibility of prolonged power outages includes charging all your communication devices, battery packs, fans and lights. Those with generator sets can load up on fuel or charge them up in daylight if they are solar-powered battery packs. Keep all medication and documents ready in case they are needed for evacuation. My neighbor left their home with their sick dad as soon as power went out. The sick and elderly are most vulnerable during power outages. Some are reliant on oxygen machines and other devices. This is a big problem on a human scale.
The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines first declared a "red alert" on May 12. The manual load dropping or scheduled brownouts was announced by NGCP at 3.30 p.m. on May 13. Luzon Grid was on red alert from 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. and yellow alert from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. Red alert was defined as insufficient power supply to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement. Yellow means the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement.
Also on May 13, Meralco posted its first red alert announcement in its Facebook page at 5.28 p.m. for tentative brownout schedules that were already occurring between 4.01p.m. to 6 p.m. in many cities in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon province and Rizal province. The announcements we released per hour as the scheduled brownouts were already ongoing until almost midnight.
By the morning of May 16, the Department of Energy announced that the Luzon and Visayas grids were operating under normal conditions. But as of May 18, the energy secretary said the NGCP still has not provided a report or explanation regarding last week’s failure of transmission lines that resulted in red and yellow alerts in Luzon and the Visayas. Also on May 18, a House resolution was filed to seek a congressional inquiry into the back-to-back tripping of major transmission lines operated by the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) that affected the Luzon and Visayas grids.
In an interview with One News PH on May 15, NGCP spokesman Cynthia Alabanza clarified that the power outage in Luzon was not caused by the energy crisis brought by the war in Iran. According to Alabanza, the Middle East conflict affects our supply of crude oil or diesel. Luzon is not too dependent on diesel. Luzon has a variety of power plants connected to the NGCP transmission system — coal, natural gas, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectricity. However, island provinces with small power utilities groups operate mostly on diesel. The government recently announced its roll-out of the sale of government-procured diesel to secure electricity in missionary areas and remote communities.
In the same interview, the NGCP spokesman said what happened last week was a combination of inopportune circumstances. The summer heat compounded over the past 10 days and a thin power supply in the grid. About 20 to 30 power plants were off the transmission system. And by May 12 one of the NGCP’s main transmission lines, their biggest in Batangas, tripped resulting in the isolation or separation from the transmission system of a larger power plant. That was apparently the final straw and they lost what little excess they had. The rest was a series of unfortunate events during the reconnection and restoration. I leave that up to the technical experts to explain.
So, what now? The Philippines has one of the lowest installed energy capacities in the entire Asean region in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP and on a per capita basis. This current Middle East crisis has exposed our vulnerability as a country heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Is renewable energy (RE) the answer? Even with the Philippines’ policy reforms such as liberalizing the RE sector such as 100-percent foreign ownership, Green Lanes for Strategic Investments, there are critical barriers that persist and affect investor confidence. What little power we have is expensive, limited and not secure.
It was timely that I moderated and hosted a symposium on the Philippines Energy Outlook organized by Howden, one of the world’s largest insurance and reinsurance brokers. We discussed the energy trilemma — that security, affordability and sustainability don’t always align. There are always tradeoffs. With what happened last week, we see that risk management should not be a late-stage cost. It must be a foundation for more effective and resilient projects.
Power generation across Asean has grown immensely in the past 20 years driven mostly by fossil fuel-based power generation. According to the International Monetary Fund, as of 2024, Indonesia is the largest electricity producer in the region, followed by Vietnam, which has overtaken Malaysia and Thailand to become the second largest producer. Where does the Philippines stand? Our energy supply remains constrained. And as last week’s power emergency shows, the limited grid infrastructure and existing power supply are big problems. Do we see this as a push to shift to renewable energy faster or is it forcing the government to focus on short-term fuel security?
As I sat on my veranda with old-fashioned candles and a manual fan last Wednesday night, I watched the Senate incident on my cellphone. Shaking my head, I was sad and mad. There’s so much work that needs to be done.
