Why a declining birth rate is set to have a major impact on schools

LocalFamily & Parenting
3 Mar 2026 • 2:45 AM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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  • London has seen a 1.6% decrease in secondary school applications this year, with 86,057 applications, continuing a downward trend from previous years.
  • This decline is directly linked to the capital's rapidly falling birth rate, which has already prompted several councils to consider primary school closures or mergers.
  • Despite the overall fall in applications, 70.5% of applicants received an offer from their first-choice secondary school, and 94.3% secured at least one of their chosen schools.
  • London Councils predicts a further 3.8% drop in demand for secondary school places over the next four years, impacting approximately 112 classes.
  • Concerns have been raised about the financial implications for schools, which are funded per pupil, and the impact of a 'postcode lottery' on disadvantaged pupils accessing preferred schools.

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