Party unlikely to instantly emerge as major bloc but could have electoral impact: Analyst
PETALING JAYA: Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s bid to lead Parti Bersama Malaysia is emerging as a major early test of whether Malaysian voters are prepared to embrace a credible “third force” or whether the new platform will end up fragmenting the reformist bloc ahead of the next general election.
Positioning itself as an alternative to Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), Bersama is entering the political arena on a platform of generational change, reformist politics and a rejection of what Rafizi has described as Malaysia’s “rotation game” of coalition survival.
READ MORE: Rafizi says Malaysian politics has become ‘rotation game’ driven by coalition survival, not reform
But political analysts say its emergence raises a deeper question of whether Malaysia is truly ready for a viable third force or whether Bersama will split the reformist vote and inadvertently strengthen rival coalitions.
Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Datuk Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Bersama is unlikely to immediately emerge as a major third bloc capable of replacing PH, BN or PN but added that it could still have a decisive electoral impact.
“In a first-past-the-post electoral system, a small party does not need to win many seats in order to have a major impact.
“It is enough to take between 5% and 10% of votes in certain constituencies to cause PH, BN or PN to lose seats.”
Awang Azman said Rafizi’s reformist and technocratic branding, together with Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad’s image as an urban progressive leader, could resonate with disillusioned urban and younger voters, especially in mixed constituencies.
However, he cautioned that personality appeal alone would not be sufficient to build a sustainable national political force.
He stressed that Bersama could become a serious challenge to PKR if it succeeds in drawing reformist youth groups, urban professionals and disillusioned PH supporters.
“That challenge may not necessarily bring PKR down immediately, but it could weaken PKR’s moral dominance as the party of reform.”
On PKR’s position, Awang Azman said the development is not an immediate existential threat but a clear warning that the party must address internal dynamics, reformist space and youth confidence in the post-Anwar leadership era.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and Iseas–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said the most immediate risk from Bersama’s emergence is vote fragmentation in PH-held urban constituencies.
“Realistically, it would be like the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) as a third force, splitting votes especially in urban PH-held areas.”
She added that Muda eventually worked with PH during the 2022 general election to secure seats. “If votes are split, and now BN and PH also want to fight each other, PN would be the beneficiary.”
However, she emphasised that Rafizi and Nik Nazmi have the democratic right to challenge PH despite the political cost.
She cautioned against viewing youth voters as a single ideological bloc, noting that younger Malaysians remain politically fragmented.
Syaza said previous youth-focused movements such as Muda struggled to expand beyond their core base, adding that while it is positive to broaden political choice, it would be misleading to assume a uniform youth political direction.
“Maybe urban educated youth would respond positively to Bersama’s messaging, but how many are they in the larger scheme?”
However, she added that Rafizi and Nik Nazmi may command greater credibility than Muda due to their experience as national-level politicians.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said Bersama’s key challenge is proving it can deliver policy solutions rather than relying on anti-establishment rhetoric.
“When he promises that Bersama will provide solutions, I think there is already some negative perception there,” he said, referring to Rafizi’s long-running “Raja Formula” reputation in Malaysian politics.
“Rafizi alone, Nik Nazmi alone and a few other disgruntled PKR politicians are just not enough to attract the younger generation.”
He argued that if Bersama is to become electorally viable, it may ultimately require cooperation with a larger established coalition.
“It seems the long and short of it is that Bersama needs to work with an established political party,” he said, adding that it remains unclear which party would be the most suitable strategic partner at this stage.