Why the Iranian regime is unlikely to be toppled despite US attacks

WorldPolitics
17 Mar 2026 • 11:31 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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  • US intelligence suggests Iran's regime is likely to remain in power, despite over two weeks of US-Israeli attacks that have killed at least 2,000 people.
  • Despite the deaths of top Iranian military and intelligence leaders, including the Supreme Leader, and widespread damage to military installations, officials believe the regime retains control.
  • Intelligence reports contradict public vows from Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu to achieve regime change, stating the Iranian regime is not in danger of collapse.
  • A Connecticut senator, Chris Murphy, indicated that White House briefings confirm the administration's war goals do not include destroying Iran's nuclear programme or forcing regime change.
  • The conflict has extended to Gulf states, with a drone hitting an oil facility in Fujairah, and Trump was reportedly warned that attacking Iran could trigger strikes against US Gulf allies.

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