THE ongoing Middle East conflict and the past El Niño are revealing anew the fragility of the current food system in Southeast Asia.
And the worst is yet to come as the upcoming “super” El Niño is expected to present more challenges, while the effects of the Middle East conflict on the region’s food production can last for at least a year or more.
But the good news is there is an ongoing initiative across member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) to ensure the region’s food security over the short to long term.
I am referring to the creation of the Asean Food Security Alliance (AFSA) in 2024 through the Asean-Business Advisory Council (BAC) Philippines led by Philippine Center for Entrepreneurship-Go Negosyo founder Joey Concepcion. And yours truly is the AFSA senior adviser and one of those who led in its conceptualization.
ABAC is also chaired by Concepcion for this year.
In short, the creation of AFSA was led by the Philippines and is a private-sector led initiative through the ABAC led by Concepcion. And we are currently working hard to transition AFSA from formal paper agreements into real-world market solutions.
Not grandiose
The approach to realizing AFSA is not grandiose, or will not involve investments or projects costing billions of dollars and requiring the building of massive infrastructure or systems.
Rather, the mission of AFSA is to drive solutions that are scalable utilizing agricultural technology and sustainable farming practices while facilitating dialogue among agribusiness companies, policymakers, and key stakeholders, most especially the farmers and fishers.
Hence, the policy paper for AFSA seeks to establish a framework to get the private sector more involved in regional food security initiatives, which will be backed by business-driven systems that fosters an enabling environment for Public-Private-Producer Partnerships (4Ps). This, in turn, should strengthen Asean-wide collaboration, and harnesses market mechanisms to level up food production systems, and attain enhanced food security across the region.
Furthermore, the AFSA can have a positive impact on economic growth and inclusive development, because farming enclaves generating more wealth also translates to more consumers with better purchasing power. We are referring here to the farmers and fishers, and their households.
Major growth driver
Official data shows that Asean’s agriculture sector remains a major driver of economic growth in the region, with the value added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing (AFF) amounting to $375 billion in 2024. This accounts for 9.5 percent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Furthermore, Asean’s AFF sector employed 29.12 percent of the region’s total workforce in 2023. That is a very significant number.
According to FAOSTAT 2025, the leading agricultural commodities of Asean are oil palm fruit, rice, sugarcane, cassava, corn, coconut, banana, chicken meat, rubber, and hen eggs.
It is worth noting that the list also has commodities that are produced not primarily for food. However, let me emphasize that food security is also about farmers and fishers earning more, so they can also have enough purchasing power to feed their families and households. This means that in attaining food security, farmers should also be supported in cultivating crops that have better earning potential and markets abroad.
However, according to 2023 statistics from Unctad, Asean is still a net importer in most food groups, with cereals and meat having the largest deficits.
Also, Unctad figures showed that Asean’s international trade for vegetables and fruits was mixed, as most countries in the region still import vegetables. On the other hand, Thailand and Cambodia are net exporters of fruits.
For cereals including rice, the major net importers include Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. This clearly shows the need for the Philippines to ramp up local production of rice.
Meanwhile, Thailand and Vietnam are among the top exporters of rice globally.
When it comes to fish and marine products, the only exporters in the region are Indonesia and Myanmar. This confounds me as the Philippines has rich fishing grounds, which can make our country a major exporter of marine products.
Health impact
Also, according to Unctad citing data compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2024, moderate to severe food insecurity across Asean rose from 14.8 percent to 17 percent, and major disparities in the region have continued to exist with Timor-Leste (53.7 percent), Cambodia (50.5 percent), and the Philippines (44.1 percent) specifically facing high burdens.
I feel very alarmed that the Philippines ranked third in this aspect.
Also, availability, accessibility, and affordability of food across the region are still issues that need to be addressed for Asean to attain real food security.
FAOSTAT 2024 data also showed that nearly all countries across Asean saw cost increases in food due to food price inflation and higher costs of nutritious food.
The highest costs for food were recorded in Brunei, Thailand, and Lao PDR. Meanwhile, the sharpest increases were logged in Thailand, Lao PDR, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Again, the Philippines landing in the list alarms me.
At this point, I wonder how the current food system across Asean can sustain the prolonged or lingering effects of the Middle East war, and the upcoming super El Niño that will likely be followed by lesser but more powerful storms.
Perhaps the best thing we can do is to learn lessons on the forthcoming challenges from those twin crisis, and apply them in establishing a sustainable, resilient, and exclusive Asean food production system that can adequately ensure the region’s food security.
For the second installment of this column-series, I will discuss the components for the fruition of the Asean Food Security Alliance, and related systems.
