There are a lot of reasons to believe why Rafizi Ramli might eat his words and not resign as the Economic Minister, despite vowing that he will do so if he loses to Nurul Izzah in the contest for the number 2 post in PKR.
Rafizi as well all know, did in fact lose to Nurul Izzah last week.
Considering that he has been saying that he will resign even before PKR’s nomination day started a couple of weeks ago, you would think that he would have handed over his resignation letter as soon as results were out and he found out, as he himself had predicted, that he had been resoundingly defeated by Anwar’s daughter.
But as it turns out, four days have passed, but still there is no sign that Rafizi will vacate his cabinet portfolio.
Rafizi by the way, knew from the get go that he was going to be defeated. It was not as if he was hoping that he might win and thus not need to hand in his resignation. He himself had said that he might have a heart attack if he won against Nurul Izzah. Considering that he probably knew for weeks that he was going to lose to Nurul Izzah on 23rd of May, it is odd that he is still working in his office as usual and even attended the second day of the Asean Summit in his capacity as the Economic minister.
If you are going to resign as the nation's Economic minister, why attend the ASEAN summit? Why not just ask your deputy to attend instead? I am sure everybody in the summit will understand why you can’t attend, if it was told to them that your absence is due to the fact that you are about to resign due to a political defeat.
The fact that Rafizi is doing things like attending the Asean Summit, although he has promised to resign, is thus causing many people to doubt as to whether Rafizi will resign at all.
The main reason why many people are doubting as to whether Rafizi will indeed resign or leave PH, is because like Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said : “Leaving the party would leave Rafizi adrift and directionless, not unlike Khairy after he was ejected by Umno.”
One of the main reasons why Rafizi will likely be adrift and directionless, is because almost nobody in PKR is going to follow him if he leaves PKR.
The biggest problem with Rafizi is that he never seemed to have understood politics is about identity, not competence.
Nobody hires a politician to be a minister or a leader of the country because we think they know how to manage the economy or run the country. We hire a politician to be a minister or lead the country, chiefly because we believe that they are “one of us”, and the reason that we believe that they are one of us, is because politicians are the only people in the country that will try their darndest to identify with us.
It is only politicians that make us feel like they care about our problems, that they want us to win because only if we win they will feel like they won and fight for us against our enemies and opponents like our enemies and opponents are also their enemies and opponents, to make us feel that they are one of us. They also often take the criticism that we level against them, because they instinctively know that by taking our criticism , they can induce us to believe that they are one of us.
Often they will even show themselves walking in the pasar malam or drinking a Teh Tarik in a nasi kandar, simply to show us that they are just like us.
Rafizi however, has done nothing much to identify with anyone – as a matter of fact, he tends to act as if he is better and smarter than all of us. He can’t take criticism from any one of us either – if we try to criticize him, he will “bakar” us through his podcast, as if we are his enemies and opponents.
As a rule, Rafizi has always touted his worth and value through his competence, or his ability to get things done for us, rather than do anything to identify with us.
The problem however, is that most of us don’t think he is that competent. Most of us, as matter of fact, are given to believe he is actually incompetent, in that though he often speaks eloquently about high sounding “formulas”, theories or presumptions, he does really have a good track record of achieving anything practical or real.
As for identity, most tend to only identify with him because he holds a high position in Pakatan Harapan and the Unity government. Because he is a part of Pakatan and the government , the supporters of PH and the unity government will support him regardless of their opinion about his person, just because they are pro-pakatan or pro-government.
When Rafizi leaves the unity government and Pakatan harapan however, it is almost certain that he will drift away to political oblivion, because if he counts on his competence alone to keep him relevant in the political, it is doubtful as to whether he can go very far, or anywhere at all.
In politics, it is the party that is the brand, not the personality.
Even Donald Trump, who was immensely popular in the politics of America, needed the platform provided by the republican party in order to become the president of America. Without the party, it is doubtful whether anyone, even a politician as popular as Trump, would be able to identify with a large enough number of people, in order to matter.
If even Mahathir struggles with being swept away to oblivion without Umno, what more Rafizi.
The lion's share of support that a politician will get from the public, is because a segment of the public identifies with their party, and thus the politician can expect the public to support them as a means of supporting the party of their choice.
When the politician severs their tie with their party, they will have to do what the likes of Khairy, Syed Saddiq or Ramasamy is doing, to remain politically relevant.
Khairy has already created a podcast – so that option is out for Rafizi. It is doubtful as to whether he can join Khairy in Khairy’s podcast, because it doubtful as to whether Rafizi will be willing to play the second fiddle to Khairy in the Khairy’s podcast, as it is doubtful as to whether Khairy will be willing to share his limelight with Rafizi.
As much as Khairy and Rafizi are purportedly friends, politicians don’t have friends, they only have interests. Even Nurul Izzah claims that Rafizi is her friend forever, but that did not persuade her to give up her seat to Rafizi.
Syed Saddiq is still trying to remain relevant and visible in politics, by moonlighting as a celebrity, but I seriously doubt that Rafizi will be able to follow that route. People might be enamored with Syed Saddiq and Bella Astillah as the national sweetheart, but if Rafizi tries to do the same, it might be a little bit too much.
Considering everything, the only option that remains open to Rafizi, is likely the Ramasamy route, or a case where like Ramasamy, Rafizi turns himself into such a virulent critic of Anwar, PH and the government, that he will find fault with them even if they say that water is wet and fire is hot.
In a way I think that the Ramasamy way might be suited for Rafizi, but Rafizi must beware that like Ramasamy, though people might use him to channel their own frustration and disappointment with Anwar, PH and the unity government, he himself will likely develop a reputation of a sour puss or a sore loser, if all he seems to be doing is channel the frustration and disappointment of the people towards the Anwar, PH and the unity government.
For various reasons, I don’t even think that Rafizi can join the opposition. Like Azmi of Akademi Nusantara said, PKR is probably the only party that can tolerate and accept someone with Rafizi's style of politics.
Rafizi can try to leave the limelight, as Nurul Izzah did, but if he did what Nurul did, rather than come back stronger, I think he is more apt to be forgotten altogether.
He could be like Mahathir Rais, the former information chief of Bersatu, who now writes for Newswav, after leaving Bersatu, but if that is what Rafizi intends to do, he should perhaps ask Mahathir Rais about how difficult it is to get an audience in the free world, without having a party to back your output.
If you are a part of a party, party supporters will support what you say, even if you say the darndest thing. When you are a part of a party, what you say doesn't matter, so long as everybody feels that you are one of them. It is like going to temple or a church - you don't even need to understand what the priests there are saying - sometimes they will even speak in a dead language that you don't understand - but regardless of that , you will still hear them and support them anyway, simply because you believe that they, just like you, are a part of the same congregation.
In the free world however, you cannot just say whatever you want and expect support - instead, you actually have to say something of value, that can move the heart and mind of your audience and make an impression in their observation and experience, in order to gain their attention. Even then, their attention is fickle, and is unlikely to translate into support.
Putting two and two together, I feel that there is indeed a chance that Rafizi might not be resigning as the economic minister or be leaving Keadilan at all.
But how will he continue to stay, you ask, after all that he has said and done?
Well, to that I will just say that politics is indeed the art of the possible.
It is the art of the possible, especially, if it is in tune with the politicians self interest and prospects.
When a politician thinks that it will help them to win the party elections, they will say that the the party that they themselves have hitherto led, in will lose the general election and is losing its reformasi spirit, but after they lose the elections and they realise that have to find a way to remain in the party that they had earlier criticized and condemned, they will likely see the light when they feel the heat, and perhaps say that their heart and mind has always been with the party, and they will do anything to ensure that the party wins the next general election and carry on reformasi spirit.
Stranger things have happened in politics.
Let us wait and see how the cookies will crumble with Rafizi.
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