Sir Keir Starmer is fighting for his political life amid fury over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador and the resignation of two top aides in less than 24 hours.
The prime minister is in the centre of a political storm after admitting he was aware of the former peer’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein even after his conviction for child sex offences.
Figures across the political spectrum – including MPs in his own party – have been questioning the prime minister’s judgement, with some declaring “it’s over” for Mr Starmer.
Meanwhile, on Monday, the previously loyal Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar urged him to step down over the Mandelson-Epstein scandal, saying he had made “too many mistakes”.
The furore comes after months of speculation about Sir Keir’s leadership of the Labour Party, with senior figures appearing to position themselves as his successor.
The clock has been ticking for some time now on a prime minister whose polling ratings have progressively worsened in his 16 months in power.
But Morgan McSweeney’s departure – the man who was responsible for Sir Keir being the leader of the Labour Party, the architect of the subsequent election victory and central figure in running the government – leaves a weak prime minister very badly exposed.
While the former chief of staff attempted to fall on his sword, claiming he takes “full responsibility” for the advice to hire Lord Mandelson, his resignation has failed to quell growing questions over whether or not the prime minister can continue in his job.
And just one day after Mr McSweeney’s departure, the PM was also hit by the resignation of Downing Street director of communications Tim Allan, further fuelling doubts over the PM’s future.
It only takes one candidate to garner 20 per cent of the MPs to stand against him, and Sir Keir is in serious trouble.
But who would that person be, and could they unite a warring party?
Angela Rayner
The former deputy prime minister is being openly discussed as a replacement for Sir Keir, despite her resignation less than six months ago over her personal tax payments.
Angela Rayner raised eyebrows on Wednesday when she got to her feet in the Commons and made it clear she would vote against the government’s attempt to restrict the release of full vetting documents relating to Lord Mandelson’s appointment.
Ms Rayner, the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne in Greater Manchester, is viewed as a potential successor to Sir Keir or, if she did not run herself, as someone whose support could have a significant influence on the outcome of any contest.
Many in the trade unions have been eager to see Ms Rayner get the top job and were already plotting her return days after she quit. She is believed to be preparing for a contest, having declared last month: “I’m not dead yet.”
Last week, the prime minister suggested Ms Rayner has a “future role to play” in government, and said he wanted to bring her back to the front line “at the right point”.
Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham has been the most talked about threat to Sir Keir’s leadership in recent months, with speculation about a potential challenge having grown since mid-2025.
Last year, Mr Burnham repeatedly failed to rule out a Labour leadership bid and has been regularly tipped as the leading candidate to take over should Sir Keir’s position as prime minister become untenable.
He was the focus of such rumours at the Labour Party conference in September, when he revealed that MPs were privately urging him to challenge Sir Keir.
Earlier this month, tensions came to a head when a parliamentary seat in the north west came up for grabs after Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne stepped down.
The Greater Manchester mayor applied to run under the Labour banner in the historically safe seat – but was blocked by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC).
Critics have accused Sir Keir and his allies of preventing Mr Burnham’s candidacy for factional reasons, fearing a leadership challenge from the mayor as both Labour’s poll ratings and his personal approval ratings flounder.
Wes Streeting
There is widespread speculation that supporters of health secretary Wes Streeting will launch a bid to replace Sir Keir following months of uncertainty and suffering in the polls.
Just this week, as questions around Sir Keir’s future reached fever pitch, the health secretary took the controversial decision to publish communications between himself and Lord Mandelson which contained severe criticism of the PM’s economic and Middle East policies.
The publication broke collective responsibility and would normally lead to a sacking, but Mr Streeting justified it by saying it was necessary to deal with with “smears” that had been made about his relationship with the disgraced former Labour peer.
However, many have seen it as a clear attempt to distance himself from the PM and make it clear that he is ready to step in to his role when the time is right.
It comes after a briefing war within Downing Street in recent months, targeting the health secretary over his perceived ambitions to succeed Sir Keir.
It was also reported earlier this month that senior figures had been pushing for Mr Streeting’s removal from Cabinet for disloyalty, amid deepening splits in the prime minister’s top team.
Mr Streeting has previously voiced his concerns about the direction of the government, and hit out at a “toxic culture” in No 10 when briefings against him was made public in November.
The 43-year-old health secretary is charismatic and the one cabinet minister who can connect with the public – as long as they are not striking resident doctors.
The former National Union of Students' president’s main weakness is that he is seen as too far to the right of the party, but he remains a more charismatic version of Sir Keir with less qualms about being compared to the Tories.
Shabana Mahmood
Another candidate who has been tipped for the top job is the home secretary, who was effectively endorsed by former prime minister Tony Blair last year.
Amid previous speculation that Sir Keir could be forced to step down as prime minister, Shabana Mahmood has emerged among the front runners to succeed him.
Her biggest issues are similar to Mr Streeting. Like him, she is seen as being on the right of the party and it is unlikely both could run.
Ed Miliband
The left is looking for a candidate and there is a good chance they may turn to someone who had a go as leader before.
The 56-year-old is a hate figure for the rightwing press because of his net zero policies but this only acts as a plus with members of the party.
A bit like former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Mr Miliband has found new life and purpose in life after leadership. He is now the evangelist for green energy and net zero when the world needs one.
Gone is the cowed and shrunken man who led the party to defeat in 2015 – he has been replaced by a man who is a serious contender to lead the party again with a new vigour.
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