WORLD-SHAKING query: With the looming debacle of the United States’ Israel-ignited war on Iran now turning nasty for Washington and its Middle East allies as US and Israeli air defenses and bases, and the region’s oil facilities and shipping crumble under Iranian retaliation, will America still win support for its military actions and facilities?
More than the back and forth of bluster and bombardment or even skyrocketing petroleum prices crushing economies and consumers across the planet, doubts cast on US prowess and protection may be the game changer in the dozen-day-and-counting conflict triggered by America and Israel, replicating surprise attacks last June on Iranian leaders and defenses amid Washington-Tehran talks on Iranian nuclear and missile programs.
After all, military might may be the only geopolitical arena where America still leads, and if that goes, so does US supremacy. Sure, the American economy remains No. 1 by market exchange rates. But for several years now, China is larger based on purchasing power parity, which factors out currency distortions. Plus, for over a decade, China has been the largest trading partner of most nations.
US money and tech clout slips
The American market remains highly prized, and the US dollar is still the most widely used currency for international trade and investment. Tariff hikes by US President Donald Trump got many countries offering concessions, and most of the world complied with Washington’s sanctions on Russian exports and banks.
Yet Russia’s economy still managed to outpace most of the West, fueled by massive defense spending and oil revenues, now boosted even more by the global petroleum crunch driving up prices. China, meanwhile, hit back with restrictions on rare earth minerals needed for weapons, energy and other key industries, prompting Trump to scale back tariffs.
Plus, the Brics group of countries founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are escalating trade in nondollar currencies and even experimenting with an alternative Brics “unit” backed by gold and the group’s denominations. The expiry in 2024 of the US-Saudi deal to price oil exports in dollars will further reduce the need to amass and use greenbacks for international payments.
That trend toward reduced dollar reserves and transactions looks set to accelerate, driven by fears of Western sanctions and worries over US Treasury bills — the largest component in central bank reserves — amid America’s $38-trillion government debt, over 120 percent of its annual economic output.
Science and technology is another crucial arena where America may have already lost its lead. As our Feb. 19 column reported, quoting top US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, “China’s technology base has vastly outstripped [Europe] and increasingly competes with the US.”
China’s global research and development (R&D) spending matches America’s $780 billion annually. But US investment is largely in software, biotech and pharmaceuticals, while Chinese R&D covers areas more crucial to defense. And since Chinese costs are generally lower, its investments employ and produce more in real terms. In patent awards, China leads worldwide: more than 1 million in 2024, nearly double in 2020, against 319,815 for America, down a bit from 2020.
Protector no more
So, with economic and tech clout slipping, guns is America’s remaining card to maintain global dominance. And that is slipping, too — big time.
Take Ukraine: Washington and London got Kyiv to trash a March 2022 peace deal with Moscow for full withdrawal with no loss of territory to Russia if Ukraine stayed out of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Instead, with NATO arms and aid, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continued battling the army of Vladimir Putin. Now, with more than 1 million killed, many millions displaced, one-fifth of territory lost, and cities and infrastructure devastated in four years of war, Ukraine will lose as America under Trump wants out of the war.
Now, the Iran conflict has greatly degraded US and allied missile defenses in the Middle East, having expended thousands of interceptor rockets to stop old or decoy projectiles and drones, seasoned military analysts say. Further Iranian attacks have reportedly devastated the 27 American bases in the region, key radar installations crucial to air and missile defense, petroleum and port facilities of US allies, and civilian areas and infrastructure.
More attacks by Iran’s newer and more destructive projectiles are threatened even as America rushes anti-missile rockets to defend Israel, pulling them out of US forces elsewhere in the world. Arab nations also want thousands of interceptors, but Washington has nil to give.
In sum, America got countries hosting its forces into a war with Iran — and can do little to protect them. Will these Arab states be keen to let US bases stay?
And will the 80-odd countries hosting some 800 American military facilities worldwide keep them, especially the ones likely to be used in future conflicts?
After Iran inflicted huge damage to American facilities and air defense systems, US allies near China and Russia hosting US forces — including the Philippines — cannot but wonder if bases used by the Americans would suffer even more war devastation, since Russian and Chinese missiles, warplanes and warships are far more numerous, advanced and potent than Iranian ones.
Even America’s vaunted carrier battle groups, its main instrument of power projection across the world, have kept away from Iran, fearful of being inundated by enemy projectiles and could not even keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Indeed, the US Navy also pulled back from engaging Tehran’s Houthi allies in Yemen a year ago after drones nearly hit carriers, which saw two planes fall overboard during evasive maneuvers. American vessels would be even more fearful of Chinese and Russian attack, especially carrier-killer ballistic missiles.
In sum, US armed might — the last leg of its global clout after the loss of economic and technological supremacy — looks set to be diminished, as well.
And America’s imperial eclipse may just be in line with heaven’s plan to show the folly of relying on earthly power, as we shall ponder on Sunday.