UKRAINE and Russia have agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, a welcome development as a bitter winter heightens demand for power and heating in communities scarred by a war that has raged for nearly four years.
The mutual pause is at best tenuous. It was to last for only a week, and it is doubtful if the Kremlin would agree to an extension.
In May last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to a similar truce on energy infrastructure attacks after a phone call with his US counterpart, Donald Trump.
The truce was to have been in effect for 30 days, but accusations of violations by both sides quickly tore it to shreds.
Critics see the latest moratorium as a small concession by Putin to Trump, who had brokered the deal.
In the weeks before the agreement, Russia had launched massive drone and missile strikes that targeted Kyiv’s energy facilities, leaving thousands of residents without heating for days on end at times as temperatures dipped below minus 15 degrees Celsius.
There have been 1,000 Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, destroying half of the country’s electricity capacity and causing $14.6 billion in damage, according to one report.
Ukraine countered by hitting Russian refineries, oil depots and industrial sites. The attacks knocked out about 10 percent of Russian refining capacity.
Disrupting energy networks is a strategy primarily aimed at eroding a country’s morale to the point that the citizenry begins to blame their leaders for their suffering.
“Power outages will compound the impacts of war on older people, IDPs (internally displaced persons), people with disabilities, and those in frontline areas,” noted the Acaps, an international humanitarian assessment organization. “The attacks and ensuing power disruptions will continue to result in negative socioeconomic impacts in the remaining cold season, particularly affecting small and micro businesses and households.”
The present moratorium has been holding so far, with Kyiv and Moscow confirming no attacks have been launched.
Kyiv residents, however, have grown skeptical, and doubt if the energy truce would bring them comfort as they struggle to survive the winter, one of the bleakest since the war began.
“I trust neither Putin nor Trump, so I think that even if he (Putin) complies now, he will stockpile missiles and will still keep firing,” one resident said. “Putin’s goal is the destruction of Ukraine, and all we can do is resist.”
Not surprisingly, Trump was taking the credit for the mutual halt in energy infrastructure attacks, and said it was “very nice” of Putin to approve the deal.
The Kremlin strongman, however, remains steadfast in his demand for Ukraine to pull out its forces from areas in the pro-Russian Donetsk region before negotiations to end the war could move forward.
Putin also urged the US to address what he considers the root cause of the conflict: moving troops out of Eastern Europe and not allowing Ukraine to join NATO.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Abu Dhabi last week, and Trump told reporters, “we are getting close” to a peace pact.
A follow-up meeting had been scheduled for Sunday, but hopes of a major breakthrough are a mere flicker.
Acaps predicts that Russia will continue to disrupt the energy supply chain “to attempt to reduce and overwhelm Ukraine’s defense.”
Clearing a path to peace in Ukraine has become more difficult than ever, because the conflict “continues to reflect a contest not only between two nations but between geopolitical blocs vying for influence,” said one political analyst. “Russia seeks to restore its sphere of control, while the West struggles to maintain a unified front in supporting Ukraine.”
Nearly a year ago, as the war marked its third year, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reaffirmed “the urgent need for a just, sustainable and comprehensive peace — one that fully upholds Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, in accordance with the UN Charter, international law and resolutions of the General Assembly.”
“Enough is enough,” Gueterres implored.
Sunday’s negotiations in Abu Dhabi will provide a clearer picture of where the efforts to end the war stand, and whether Guterres’ plea had made an impact, or had again fallen on deaf ears.