Climate researchers have revised down their previous worst-case scenario for global warming, citing the expansion of renewable energy, while stressing that the findings should not be interpreted as a reason for complacency.
At the same time, the scientists think the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels will likely be exceeded, at least temporarily.
The new scenarios are based on work by scientists from the World Climate Research Programme. The research unit's findings are incorporated into UN climate reports, the results of which serve as the basis for discussions at global climate conferences.
The lead author, Dutch scientist Detlef van Vuuren, explains the reasons in an accompanying commentary to the scientific article.
He points to the falling costs of renewable energy, which have declined more rapidly than expected. However, even in this downplayed scenario, the consequences remain severe.
At the other end of the scale, even the most optimistic scenarios now look bleaker than in the past. As greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise in recent years, it is no longer possible to keep global warming consistently below 1.5 degrees.
Germany's Federal Environment Ministry regards the toning down of the most pessimistic scenario as a success for climate policy. However, it says the consequences of even a 1.5-degree rise in temperature should not be underestimated.
"We already have a sense today of what a world with just a 1.5-degree rise in temperature means," the ministry said in a statement. "More droughts, heatwaves, forest dieback, floods and other extreme weather events."
