A top WTO official warns Middle East war disruptions to fertiliser supplies threaten global food security through scarcity and high prices, impacting major producers.
YAOUNDE: Disruptions to fertiliser supplies caused by the Middle East war pose a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices. World Trade Organization Deputy Director-General Jean-Marie Paugam issued the warning in an interview.
Iran has virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking a vital transit route for oil, gas, and fertilisers. A third of the world’s fertilisers normally transit this strait.
“Fertilisers are the number one issue of concern today,” Paugam told AFP. “If there is no more fertiliser, there is an impact on quantities but also on prices.”
He explained the compounding effect leads to smaller harvests and higher prices the following year. The Gulf’s natural gas supplies make it a major fertiliser manufacturer, but production has been severely impeded by the war.
Major food exporters like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for urea, a nitrogen-based fertiliser. Paugam noted there is currently no shortage as the war is only weeks old.
“But if fertilisers from the Gulf do not circulate, we will feel a direct impact on supplies to major producer countries just as planting seasons begin,” he said. “If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for three months, the impact will be significant.”
Net food-importing countries, including much of west and north Africa, would be in a very bad position. This effect can be amplified if countries start stockpiling, as happened during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Covid set back the global fight against hunger. The world had since returned to its trajectory towards eliminating hunger by 2030, a key UN goal.
“But with the risks linked to the war in the Middle East, there is once again a risk of falling off track,” Paugam warned.
