Mine dropped last month. It's about to jump right back up. My TNB bill ran high for three months straight, then last month it actually came down a little, enough that I let my guard down. Then I looked at the numbers for July, and I understood exactly why that dip was temporary. If your bill has been doing the same up-down-up dance, here is what is actually going on, and what is coming next.
What Just Happened To The AFA Rate
The Energy Commission's Automatic Fuel Adjustment rate, the monthly fuel cost component tacked onto every TNB bill, has been set at +3.59 sen per kWh for July 2026, up from +2.59 sen/kWh in June. This is the third month in a row it has landed as a surcharge instead of a discount. The real cost is actually higher, 5.55 sen/kWh, but a government fund called Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik is quietly absorbing 35% of that increase so households only feel part of it. Without that cushion, July's bills would have stung a lot more.
Why Fuel Costs Are Climbing
Coal prices for July came in at 122.37 USD per tonne against a baseline of 97 USD, and Tier 2 gas priced well above its base rate too. A stronger ringgit is softening some of that blow, since the same coal price in ringgit terms is not far above baseline once converted. But the net effect is still an increase, and that increase gets passed straight through to your bill the following month.
The Part That Should Worry You More
The AFA forecast for August through October 2026 is projected at +8.04 to +8.94 sen/kWh, more than double July's rate. That is the number to actually pay attention to, not this month's. And the timing could not be worse. MetMalaysia has forecast a Super El Nino developing from November, bringing hotter, drier conditions. Higher AFA charges landing right as the weather turns hotter means aircon-heavy households are looking at a genuine squeeze from two directions at once. My own household runs the aircon daily, and usage has crossed 600kWh for three months running. My mother does not use one in her room, but for households where an elderly parent needs the aircon on to stay comfortable through the day, cutting usage is not always a simple choice.
Why Your Bill Went Down, Then Back Up
This confused a lot of people, and understandably so. Under the Electricity Tariff Restructuring that took effect in July 2025, TNB split the bill into five components: a generation charge, a capacity charge of 4.55 sen/kWh, a network charge of 12.85 sen/kWh, a RM10 monthly retail charge, and the AFA. Most households using under 900kWh a month were told to expect a slightly lower bill under the new structure, and for a while, that held true as AFA sat negative for most of late 2025 into early 2026. But AFA turned positive again in May 2026 and has climbed every month since. That is the entire story behind the bill that dropped, then crept back up, then jumped. It was never really going down. It was just a temporary discount that expired.
What You Can Actually Do About It
A few genuine levers exist, even if none of them are dramatic. Keeping total usage at or under 600kWh a month waives both the AFA charge and the RM10 retail fee entirely. Staying under 1,000kWh unlocks the Energy Efficiency Incentive, a rebate of up to 25 sen/kWh that scales with how far under the threshold you stay. If you have a smart meter, the Time of Use scheme offers a cheaper 24.43 sen/kWh rate for usage between 10pm and 2pm on weekdays and all day on weekends, though peak hours from 2pm to 10pm cost slightly more than the standard rate, so it rewards shifting laundry and charging habits rather than daytime aircon use specifically. There is also a Green Energy Tariff option that exempts you from AFA entirely in exchange for a fixed 3 to 5 sen/kWh depending on how long you lock in, worth considering only if you expect AFA to average higher than that over the period.
The Bigger Picture
None of this happens in isolation. Malaysians are already stretching salaries that have not kept pace with the cost of living, and a rising electricity bill lands on top of everything else that has gotten more expensive. The government softening the blow through the KWIE fund is real relief, but it does not erase the underlying cost, it just delays how much of it households feel in any single month. A lot of people were genuinely caught off guard by how high bills climbed over the last few months, and the honest answer is that this is not over. The forecast for the rest of the year says it gets worse before it gets better.
My Take
Check your own bill and actually find the AFA line before you assume nothing changed. I did, and it told me exactly why my numbers moved the way they did. I am adjusting my own aircon use, running it during the hottest hours of the day and cutting it off overnight rather than leaving it on out of habit. Whether that is enough once the August to October rates and a possible Super El Nino both land at the same time, I genuinely do not know yet. But understanding what is actually driving the number is the first step before you can do anything useful about it.
Kamarul Azwan (k.azwan@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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