Melbourne Cup tip
Trustyourinstinct (Flemington Park, 04.00) – 1pt each-way @ 8/1 (PricedUP)
The Breeders’ Cup went well for us on Saturday with a 127/1 treble landing, and we are diving back into the overseas racing for the ‘race that stops a nation’ in Australia, the Melbourne Cup.
Lexus Melbourne Cup (Group 1 Handicap) (04:00, Flemington Park)
With £4,500,000 up for grabs in prize money, there’s no wonder there have been British and Irish raiders aplenty over the years and Joseph O’Brien, who won the race in 2017 with Rekindling and again in 2020 with Twilight Payment, is again mob handed.
However, connections of the shortest-priced runner of his original Flemington team, Defiantly, were left disappointed over the weekend, after the racecourse vet deemed him unfit to take his chance.
Even so, O’Brien still has five declared runners, several towards the top of the market on betting sites, and, given his burgeoning reputation as one who knows how to get his horses well handicapped, you’d have to give him a serious chance of finding the winner of this race again.
Dylan Browne McMonagle, who we are to assume would have the pick of the rides, has switched from Defiantly to Sons And Lovers, who stays well, acts on quick ground and has won in Group 2 company.
He shoulders topweight in the race and that’s a tough ask, the 20/1 on offer at the time of writing on horse racing betting sites being a likely reflection of that. Goodie Two Shoes is on offer at the same price, having finished second in this last year, bouncing back to win the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood since. She’s a live outsider again but she will have to carry 7lb more than last year which has to at least temper some enthusiasm for her chance.
James J Braddock takes a marked step up in trip for his handicap debut and steps into the unknown, stamina-wise, while the market suggests O’Brien’s best chance of a third winner is through handicap newcomer TRUSTYOURINSTINCT and I am inclined to agree.
He concedes weight to most of the field, which is understandable, after a year that has largely been a story of improvement. The gelded son of Churchill is unexposed over this trip but we do know more about his stamina reserves, having seen him win a Group 2 over 1m6f and, more recently, finish a 4L fourth to the great Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger in September.
Kizlyar, we know, is another thorough stayer and he completes the O’Brien line-up, having won the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f, when beating Defiantly, back in June.
Point Of Law heads the market on online betting apps on the back of his recent win in the Group 3 Geelong Cup (1m4f, good). He was fourth behind the Joseph O’Brien-trained Limestone in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase (1m6f, good to firm), giving both handlers a form line into this. The Ciaron Maher-trained favourite will have to prove he gets this far.
George Boughey has enjoyed a brilliant 2026 and success for Hopewell Rock, who was last seen finishing runner-up in the Ebor (1m6f, good to soft) would be no great surprise but it would certainly swell the coffers of owners Wathnan Racing. He stays well and has untapped potential over this extreme trip.
Maher also saddles Shockletz, whose form is not far short of the level of his stable companion. He has to be respected along with another representative of the same yard, the hat-trick seeing Juja Kibo.
Roger Varian’s Enfjaar and Wine Dark Sea, from the bang-in-form stable of Harry Charlton, are the other British runners in a hugely competitive field, in which I think Trustyourinstinct can rise to the occasion. He can be backed each-way but I’m hoping he can and add another international success to the CVs of JP McManus and Joseph O’Brien.
2026 Melbourne Cup odds
- Point Of Law (9) - 7/1 (bet365)
- Trustyourinstinct (18) - 8/1 (William Hill)
- Hopewell Rock (15) - 9/1 (Sky Bet)
- Shockletz (17) - 9/1 (bet365)
- So You Are (7) - 11/1 (bet365)
- Juja Kibo (14) - 12/1 (bet365)
- Middle Earth (1) - 16/1 (bet365)
- James J Braddock (24) - 18/1 (Betfair)
- Sons And Lovers (3) - 18/1 (bet365)
- Mr Monaco (16) - 22/1 (bet365)
- Goodie Two Shoes (19) - 25/1 (bet365)
- Zakouma (10) - 28/1 (bet365)
- Soul Of Spain (5) - 28/1 (BOYLE Sports)
- Enfjaar (8) - 28/1 (Betfair)
- Zahrann (11) - 30/1 (bet365)
- Wine Dark Sea (23) - 40/1 (bet365)
- Kizlyar (20) - 40/1 (bet365)
- Knight's Choice (2) - 50/1 (bet365)
- Future History (12) - 60/1 (bet365)
- Royal Supremacy (21) - 60/1 (bet365)
- Vauban (22) - 60/1 (bet365)
- Asterix (6) - 70/1 (bet365)
- Onesmoothoperator (13) - 80/1 (Spreadex)
- Strictly Business (4) - 80/1 (bet365)
Odds correct at time of writing. Subject to change.
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