Almost two-thirds of people believe that immigration has got worse since Brexit, a new poll conducted on the tenth anniversary of Britain’s vote to leave the EU has shown.
The promise to regain control of Britain’s immigration system was central to the Brexit vote and has continued to dominate political discourse ever since.
The new polling, conducted by Merlin Strategy for The Independent, also found that 55 per cent of people want a return to freedom of movement between the UK and the EU, while just 16 per cent said they oppose it.
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Questions over freedom of movement were a key part of Sir Keir Starmer’s negotiations with the EU as Britain attempts to secure a youth mobility scheme that would let young people live and work abroad. Agreement on the scheme has yet to be reached.
Sir Keir, who resigned on Monday, had put a “reset” of relations with the European Union at the heart of his premiership.
He promised to undo some of what he described as “deep damage to our economy” inflicted by Brexit, but also set red lines: the UK would not rejoin the EU, the customs union, or the single market, and there would be no return to freedom of movement.
Following his resignation, with Andy Burnham widely expected to take his place, there are now question marks over what Britain’s future relationship with the EU will look like, and whether those red lines would still stand.
Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock warned that 10 years on from the vote, people are increasingly “feeling the Brexit effects on pockets, purses, jobs and opportunities”.
The poll showed that 62 per cent of people believe immigration levels have worsened since Brexit, while just 8 per cent think they have improved.
Some 4.8 million legal migrants arrived in the UK between 2021 and 2024, a significant rise on previous years, which was influenced by schemes including refugee programmes for Hongkongers and Ukrainians fleeing strife in their homelands, as well as a demand for workers to fill shortage occupations.
The resulting net migration over the period was more than 2.5 million people when movement out of the UK was accounted for, according to official figures.
The polling, conducted from 18-21 June, also saw 40 per cent of people say they would be more likely to vote for a party that promises to rejoin the EU at the next election, and 24 per cent say they would be less likely.
This position was even more stark among Labour voters, with 58 per cent saying a pledge to rejoin the bloc would make them more likely to vote for a party, while just 8 per cent said it would make them less likely.
Among Tory voters, 42 per cent said such a pledge would make them more likely to vote for a party, while 32 per cent said the opposite.
Among Reform voters, however, just 27 per cent said a pledge to rejoin the EU would make them more likely to vote for a party, while 47 per cent said it would make them less likely.
Despite the enthusiasm among the general public for a pledge to rejoin the EU, many voters believed that renegotiating Brexit is not a priority for Britain, the poll showed.
While 38 per cent said the government should prioritise a closer relationship with the EU, 50 per cent said there are other more pressing issues the government should focus on right now.
Lord Kinnock said: “Ten years after the Referendum and five years since leaving the EU completely, people are increasingly realising that they are feeling the Brexit effects on pockets, purses, jobs and opportunities”.
“They are also recognising that the glib promises made by Farage and other Brexiters were garbage”, he told The Independent.
“Negotiated return to the EU and the single market will be arduous and it will take time. But the realities of proximity to the markets, of the condition of the UK economy, and the plain fact that we cannot allow ourselves to be stuck forever as a singular 'middle country’ will bring us nearer to joining again.”
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Lord Michael Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister, added that “it is telling that virtually none of those who led the campaign to leave the EU have hailed it as a success”.
Writing in The Independent, he said: “Instead, they offer a variety of feeble excuses as to why all their bold promises of more jobs, more trade, more power for Britain have all proved to be a con.
“Naturally, they blame everyone but themselves.”
Meanwhile, Dr Mike Galsworthy, chair of pro-EU campaign group the European Movement, said: “Brits are finally beginning to understand the unique benefits of free movement. Ten years on, they recognise that it is a mutual arrangement, giving valuable rights and opportunity to all who sign up.
He added: “There is also an awareness that with Brexit, the short-term talent circulation with Europe stopped and declined, so the government had to hunt further afield to fill gaps, inviting non-EU immigration that is more likely to settle down and bring family members.
“That is, structurally, not what Brexit voters wanted. The offer to reopen immigration that is closer to home, more temporary in flavour and more mutual in benefits, for youth in particular, now suddenly looks more attractive.”
Tom Brufatto, executive director of policy and research at Best for Britain – which campaigns for closer UK-EU ties – added: “This polling makes it abundantly clear: it’s not 2016 any more, and as our research at Best for Britain continuously shows, the majority of voters support renewing the UK’s EU membership, and will back the political parties who pledge to make this happen.
“In the decade since the Brexit referendum, we have seen and felt the daily consequences of leaving the EU, and to truly transform the UK economy, we must have a conversation about the UK’s EU membership.”
Merlin Strategy spoke to 2001 adults in Great Britain between 18 and 21 June.
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