A couple of weeks ago, I was quite sure that PN-BN was going to win decisively in Negeri Sembilan.
BN was entering the Negeri Sembilan contest with superb momentum after its decisive win in Johor.
The desire to see PH bite the dust was still strong in the hearts of non-Malays, who have long nursed a deep grievance against PH for what they perceive as it's act of betrayal. After receiving their support, PH had abandoned the non-Malays in its chase for Malay support, and the non-Malays have itching for a chance to teach PH a lesson for a long time.
The Malays, on the other hand, galvanized by the victory they saw in Johor, were ready for another round of victory in Negeri Sembilan. The fact that the two coalitions that the Malays were behind, PN and BN, managed to come up with a seat-sharing arrangement in Negeri Sembilan also led me to believe that Malay support would be fully behind PN-BN.
With the non-Malays still disgruntled with PH and the Malays standing solidly behind PN-BN, I estimated that PN-BN would win so handsomely on August 1 that even PH heavyweights like Anthony Loke and Aminuddin Harun might bite the dust.
But as they say, a week is a long time in politics.
In the last couple of weeks, four events have made me change my opinion about PN-BN's chances.
The first is PN-BN's choice of Menteri Besar candidate, which failed to ignite excitement in its campaign. Unlike Johor's Onn Hafiz, who was a major factor in BN's successful campaign in Johor, PN-BN's Negeri Sembilan MB candidate, Jalaluddin Alias, has only weighed down its campaign. Between Jalaluddin and Aminuddin Harun, the PH MB candidate, I will go out on a limb and declare that the choice of Jalaluddin was so poor that Aminuddin is almost universally seen as the better candidate to lead Negeri Sembilan.
The second is Sanusi Nor's "Tanah Melayu" remark, which has turned off any intention by non-Malays to support PN-BN and caused them to once again rally behind PH. Sanusi's remark alone was not the problem—it was the fact that he continued to defend it after making it, without adequate pushback from PN-BN leaders, that convinced non-Malays that, whatever PH's faults may be, it is still the only political entity in which they can take refuge.
The third is the release of the Tabung Haji RCI papers yesterday, which has created the impression that during the BN era, Tabung Haji incurred massive losses, much to the detriment of ordinary depositors, due to mismanagement, political pressure, and questionable actions by personalities and officials who were closely linked to BN.
If you are a Malay and believe that a Malay institution like Tabung Haji was compromised by the irresponsible, and perhaps even suspicious, actions of certain leaders and officials who are closely associated with a political party, it might persuade you to withdraw your support from them, even if you see them as one of your own.
The fourth and final reason I believe has compromised PN-BN's chances of winning is the latest action by the Negeri Sembilan Palace to revoke two titles awarded to Rais Yatim, a former Umno Menteri Besar of Negeri Sembilan who is now with PN. Rais is a key figure in the royal dispute between the incumbent ruler of Negeri Sembilan, Tuanku Muhriz, and the challenger to the throne, Tuanku Nadzaruddin. Rais's son is also contesting the Negeri Sembilan election under the PN ticket.
The Palace's decision to revoke Rais's titles just two days before the election will inevitably send the message that it is unfavourable towards PN-BN's campaign, which in turn may be interpreted as signalling that it prefers PH to continue governing Negeri Sembilan. While we do not know how much the Palace's perceived preference will influence the hearts and minds of Malay voters, what we can be reasonably certain of is that it will have a considerable effect.
According to Google Gemini, Fifty-seven percent of voters in Negeri Sembilan are Malays, while 43 percent are non-Malays.
Twenty-three of the seats being contested are considered Malay-majority seats, while 13 are non-Malay-majority seats.
Considering that non-Malay support appears to have returned to PH, the upper limit of what PN-BN may realistically achieve is a 23-13 victory.
However, when we add the uninspiring choice of Jalaluddin, the Tabung Haji revelations, and the message sent by the Istana, I feel that the final result will fall below 23-13.
My gut instinct is that PN-BN might lose another two to three seats because of these factors, bringing its tally down to either 21-15 or 20-16.
Despite that, because even if the final score is as low as 19-17, it would still be a victory for PN-BN, I am still to the view that it will be PN-BN that will emerge victorious on August 1.
But although I foresee a narrow victory for PN-BN, I also believe there is a small window of opportunity for PH to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat before the fat lady sings.
In the end, my conclusion is that it will be a tight race on August 1, with PN-BN likely to win by a small margin. However, we cannot dismiss PH's potential to come from behind and turn things around.
#prnnegerisembilan #pakatanharapan #barisannasional #perikatannasional #AminuddinHarun #jalaluddinAlias #tabunghaji #RaisYatim
Image credit : FMT / Malay Mail
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