One is reminded of Bilahari Kausikan, the former Singapore permanent envoy to the United Nations, who once remarked that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim can never resist the temptation to show off.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently garnered significant praise for allegedly "successfully mediating" a ceasefire between two warring ASEAN member states, Thailand and Cambodia. Reports suggest Anwar adopted a quiet, behind-the-scenes approach to orchestrate a truly historic armistice. Later, Anwar disclosed in the Dewan Rakyat last Thursday, that he received commendation from President Donald Trump for his ceasefire efforts.
Bernama further reported that the peace agreement received major coverage from international media outlets such as BBC, The New York Times, Al Jazeera, Reuters, and Associated Press, elevating Anwar Ibrahim's stature as ASEAN's successful conflict manager.
However, beneath this narrative of "success," there are several compelling reasons why Anwar should temper this enthusiasm.
ASEAN's Prior Silence on Escalating Tensions
During the initial months of 2025 and leading up to the intense escalation on July 24, ASEAN held several scheduled meetings, yet available information indicates a notable absence of specific, high-level dialogues directly addressing the simmering Thailand-Cambodia border tensions. Despite the escalating dispute, formal high-level ASEAN meetings in early to mid-2025 notably omitted the issue from their agendas.
The Ninth ASCC Working Group Meeting (January 14-15, 2025, Bangkok) focused on the ASCC Post-2025 Strategic Plan. ASEAN Political-Security Community Strategic Plan, APSC (26 May 2025). Subsequent ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meetings (AMM) in Kuala Lumpur—on May 25 and from July 8-11, 2025—prioritized broader community-building, external relations, and the "Inclusivity and Sustainability" theme.
While the July 9 Joint Communiqué affirmed peaceful dispute resolution generally, neither meeting's agenda, outcomes, nor pre-meeting briefings made explicit mention of the simmering Thailand-Cambodia border tensions, even as a skirmish had occurred in May. This consistent omission suggests a lack of proactive engagement within formal ASEAN forums regarding the dispute.
A Question of Trust and External Leverage
The absence of proactive engagement from ASEAN, specifically its Chairman, prior to the July 24 "blood dispute," arguably explains why neither nation's Prime Minister explicitly named Anwar Ibrahim or Malaysia as a preferred mediator in Cambodia and Thailand’s letters to the UN Security Council. This omission suggests a perception that both disputing countries held reservations about Anwar Ibrahim's leadership. As Cambodian independent strategic consultant Po Sovinda noted, "ASEAN's role largely depends on both countries requesting mediation from its community."
The eventual ceasefire, declared on July 28 and notably applauded by major external powers like the United States and China—with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issuing a supportive statement—highlights the crucial diplomatic leverage provided by these nations. Ironically, this external involvement in resolving an intra-regional conflict calls into question the very independence of ASEAN, a principle Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim himself championed just two months earlier, on May 27, 2025, when he advocated for a "fiercely independent ASEAN" during high-level summits in Kuala Lumpur.
Prioritizing Thailand: The Thaksin Factor
Anwar Ibrahim's notably more frequent interactions with the Thai government, including at least twelve engagements with Thaksin Shinawatra and Paetongtarn Shinawatra from 2024 to 2025, compared to only seven with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and a single meeting with Hun Sen, raise questions about his perceived prioritization of regional relations.
This disparity, documented through Anwar's official social media, comes amidst criticism of his controversial appointment of the "pro-military" Thaksin Shinawatra as an informal ASEAN advisor, a move publicly questioned by Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor Kamarulnizam Abdullah and met with regional and domestic cynicism.
While initially viewed as a constructive step to strengthen Malaysia-Thailand ties and address ASEAN challenges like the Myanmar crisis, these expectations now appear misplaced. Observers suggest that while Thaksin's involvement might theoretically align Thailand with ASEAN, particularly on Myanmar, it risks eroding Malaysia's neutrality and credibility in mediating the border’s conflict issues.
Ultimately, the arrangement seems to benefit Thaksin most, offering him a pathway back into regional diplomacy and an opportunity to rehabilitate his image, along with a convenient excuse for international travel.
Overlooking Internal Trust Deficits within ASEAN
A seminar in Phnom Penh on July 17, titled "Cambodia-Thailand Relations: Towards Peace, Good Neighborliness, and a Stable Region," explored ASEAN's potential role in conflict resolution, despite existing hurdles. A key point raised was the significant trust deficit Thailand had in the sitting ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn, a Cambodian national, which complicated his ability to facilitate mediation.
This raises a crucial question: was Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim aware of this dynamic? If so, what efforts did he make to actively offer a fair dialogue space as early as May 2025? The issue of Kim Hourn's role in the July 17 seminar would not have arisen if such proactive efforts had been in place. ASEAN's ability to intervene is hampered by the lack of an official request from Cambodia or Thailand. This highlights a potential missed opportunity for early, unbiased intervention from ASEAN's leadership.
Domestic Preoccupation and Delayed Engagement
The Anwar administration's deep preoccupation with domestic politics and policymaking, a focus experts predict will continue into the coming year, significantly impacted Malaysia's role as ASEAN Chair. This was starkly evident during the Oust Anwar rally on July 26, where opposition and participants widely reported hundreds of thousands demanding Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's immediate resignation over various controversies plaguing him and the ruling party.
Coinciding with the eruption of the Thailand-Cambodia "blood conflict" on July 24, Anwar was conspicuously busy announcing various initiatives and incentives aimed at placating public anger and reducing rally attendance. This intense domestic pressure has left Prime Minister Anwar grappling with internal issues, while simultaneously realizing he was considerably late in assuming his expected role as ASEAN's "parental" figure in regional dispute resolution.
The True Measure of Leadership
While the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia is a welcome development, attributing its success solely to Anwar Ibrahim's singular efforts without acknowledging the confluence of factors — including ASEAN's delayed response, external pressures, and his administration's domestic focus — presents an incomplete picture.
The narrative of Anwar as ASEAN's most successful conflict manager, while flattering, overlooks the complexities of regional diplomacy and the often-unseen forces that truly shape outcomes. The evidence suggests a reactive, rather than a proactive, approach to a simmering regional crisis, with a significant reliance on outside diplomatic leverage.
Upon all the reasons, one is reminded of Bilahari Kausikan, the former Singapore permanent envoy to the United Nations, who once remarked that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim can never resist the temptation to show off.
Amir Al Fateh (malaydigest@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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