Argentina top a 10,000-match simulation for the 2026 World Cup, with France, Spain and England close behind in a wide-open race.
LIONEL Messi’s Argentina have emerged as the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a large-scale simulation conducted by a University of Reading economist.
The study, led by Professor James Reade, simulated every match of the expanded 48-team tournament 10,000 times to estimate each nation’s chances of lifting football’s biggest prize.
ALSO READ: The last dance: Messi and Ronaldo get ready for sixth and final World Cup
Argentina topped the projected rankings, with France and Spain separated by only the narrowest of margins in second and third place.
Brazil and England followed closely behind, highlighting just how competitive the race for the trophy is expected to be.
“Argentina come out on top, but what stands out most from this simulation is how tight it is at the summit.
“France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren’t far behind either.
“It has been 60 years since England last lifted the trophy, and the simulation suggests football could finally be coming home.
“What also jumps out is the contrast between sides. Germany’s defensive numbers are notably weaker than in previous cycles, while Portugal have one of the strongest attacking ratings in the whole field.
“The model goes beyond simple rankings by estimating each team’s attacking and defensive strength individually, which gives a much richer picture of who is likely to go deep in the tournament,” Reade said.
The model was developed using data from all international matches played since January 2023, measuring the attacking and defensive strengths of each participating nation.
Although some countries played as few as 36 matches during that period while others played close to 100, the simulation was designed to account for those differences. It also incorporates a home-advantage factor for matches played outside neutral venues.
For each fixture, the model generated expected goals for both teams before determining results using statistical probability.
The entire tournament structure, from the group stage to the knockout rounds, including extra time and penalty shootouts, was then simulated repeatedly.
This process was carried out 10,000 times to produce the final rankings and probability estimates for each nation.
The 2026 World Cup will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada, marking the first time the tournament will be staged across three countries.
Among the host nations, Mexico performed best in the simulation, ranking 16th overall.
The United States placed 19th, while Canada was ranked 24th among the 48 competing teams.
