THE first parliamentary elections last Sept. 14 in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, or BARMM, ended the “cycle of disenfranchisement” that had prevented the Muslims of Mindanao from charting a roadmap for peace and prosperity.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hailed the elections as “a historic milestone” in the region’s quest for “genuine autonomy and right to government themselves.”
The elections, however, are only the first step in a long and difficult road. And the obstacles that lie ahead are many and formidable.
The polls satisfied one of the basic requirements of the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB). Another key condition still hangs in the balance.
The pact called for an “exit agreement” anchored on the decommissioning of the remaining 14,000 former combatants of the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and their transition to civilian life.
Almost 60 percent of the MILF’s 40,000 fighters had been decommissioned when MILF chairman Murad Ebrahim abruptly suspended the process, demanding guarantees from the government that it would provide the social benefits promised to the fighters that had surrendered their arms.
A standoff ended after the government and MILF panels met in Kuala Lumpur. The exit agreement, however, is still pending while a summit between President Marcos and Ebrahim is being worked out.
The election result itself could present another big roadblock. The MILF-supported United Bangsamoro Justice Party won 30 parliament seats, but rival parties have banded into a 46-member alliance that could threaten the formation of an MILF-led coalition that could fight a paralyzing partisan gridlock. Without a stable parliamentary partnership, analysts consider the region as vulnerable to political stagnation.
Stagnation could lead to a serious security breakdown, a situation that could be exploited by terrorist organizations like the Maute group and the Abu Sayyaf. Military and police operations may have seriously eroded the terror groups’ capability to launch major attacks like bombings and kidnappings, but they remain active and could still disrupt local stability.
Private armed groups that offer their services to anybody who can afford the asking price are another recurring threat. The Philippine National Police does not have an exact count of how many guns-for-hire gangs operate in BARMM because they are active only during political events like elections. But the PNP acknowledged that the region is still under intense monitoring.
Rido, or clan violence, is still the problem that regional authorities worry most about. Tribal or family feuds are deeply rooted in the culture of Muslim Mindanao. These conflicts present a major challenge to BARMM’s transition to a post-conflict society.
There are serious efforts to codify rido norms into a set of guidelines that are based on cultural and religious principles. The introduction of the guideline is already making a deep impact on the behavior of the parties involved. “Armed groups, including those within MILF, have begun to recognize that many acts committed during rido were prohibited in Islamic teaching and the Quran,” one observer noted. “This realization had led to a noticeable shift in their approach to conflicts, with more emphasis put on protecting non-combatants and respecting communities.”
A shift in the security landscape can shape the region’s economic outlook. The BARMM government has, in fact, built the framework for long-term economic growth that is anchored on four foundations.
The first is building a “blue economy” trading corridor that will link the port of Polloc in Maguindanao del Norte to Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, and Sabah in Malaysia. The second is to build disaster-resilient farming systems and develop BARMM as a global hub for halal agricultural and processed food products.
The third is to put up a hydrogen power plant in Basilan that will provide clean energy to power the region’s maritime industry.
The fourth is to invest heavily in the region’s human capital and infrastructure.
Like we said, the road ahead for BARMM is long and difficult. Autonomy provides the momentum for the tasks in institutional capacity, fiscal transparency and inclusive justice. The region’s leaders must prove they can deliver good governance that will look beyond tribal affiliation or political patronage.
More importantly, they should be up to the challenge of transforming peace agreements into transformative instruments for growth and development.
