“LEAVE” is the verb that summed up the aspirations of the British political elites that pushed hard for the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU) — better known as “Brexit” — which happened in June 2016. It is the same verb that sums up the renewed call from some members of the Philippine political elite to secede Mindanao from the republic, which they derisively describe as “Imperial Manila.”
The difference between the King’s English, which is the language of the British elite, and the mostly tortured English of the proponents of Mindanao’s secession, shows a vast chasm. But the rhetorical drift of the Brexiteers during the campaign that led to a close 52- to 48-percent vote for Brexit 10 years ago and the current proponents of Mindanao’s secession — former president Rodrigo Duterte, former lawmaker Kiko “Meow-meow” Barzaga and former speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, among others — cannot be more similar.
The UK, with its untrammeled independence and with the crippling shackles that tied it to the EU gone, will now be “Britain Unleashed,” as Brexit’s proponents trumpeted in the heady days after the “Leave” votes prevailed. “Britain can now see the sunlit meadows beyond,” said Boris Johnson, who, before June 2016, was a prime minister in waiting.
Liz Truss, then a Cabinet secretary and future premier whose tenure lasted for a record 45 days, also predicted that the exit from the EU would enable the UK to pursue trade and commercial deals without the binds of the bloc’s trade covenants. Just like during the glory years of the British Empire, when Britain was at the center of global trade.
The proponents of Mindanao’s secession envision the “sunlit meadows beyond” like Johnson did, although expressed in pedestrian English. They see the radical transformation of Mindanao from a perennial “Island of Promise” into a real economic juggernaut post-secession and the proclamation of Mindanao as a separate republic, unshackled from Imperial Manila. The region’s rich natural resources, normally exploited by nonnative robber barons, will be harnessed for Mindanao.
The strategically located seaports will be the anchor of an expected external trade spurt. Independent Mindanao would emerge richer, its newfound prosperity translating into improved social cohesion and political stability. Mindanao will be shielded from carpetbagging arrivistes.
All these are very much like the rosy projections of the Brexiteers for the UK 10 years ago after choosing to leave the EU, a decision that has tragically yielded the opposite results 10 years later.
The state of the UK in June 2026 should serve as a cautionary tale, not a source of inspiration, for the political elites pushing for Mindanao’s secession.
In his New York Times opinion piece on the state of Britain on the 10th anniversary of Brexit, Financial Times contributing editor Philip Stephens said “the sunlit meadows were a mirage,” adding that the hoped-for economic resurgence of the country was a “fantasy.”
Stephens said Britain’s gross domestic product was now down 4 percent from the pre-Brexit growth level — or the output drop may be a more dismal 8 percent, which is the more pessimistic estimate. Business investments are down 10 percent. Britain has been “locked out” of the single biggest free trade market in the world with half a billion citizens: Britain’s erstwhile partners, the 27 nations under the EU.
On political stability, the UK has had six prime ministers over the past 10 years — from David Cameron to Keir Starmer, with the latter just resigning a couple of days ago. Stephens wrote that the hoped-for closer ties with the Commonwealth nations and the creation of a Britain-led “Anglosphere” failed to materialize. The expectation that Britain would improve its ties with the United States was dashed by Donald Trump and his very public disdain for Europe. Recall that the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy warned that Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to its lax immigration policies.
Even if the proponents of Mindanao’s secession succeed in overcoming the constitutional roadblocks that make that separation unconstitutional, the immediate post-secession period will be one of insurmountable challenges. How fast can the secession proponents draft the constitution that will build the critical institutions for the new republic? What form of government will best serve the interest of an independent Mindanao, of which Muslim Mindanao is a part? How will an independent Mindanao structure its judicial system that needs to balance the needs of its Christian and Muslim parts? And what banking system will serve both without friction?
Like any startup, a newly independent Mindanao has to generate revenues to fund basic expenditures. Who will take care of that critical part?
There has also been no record of successful leave-taking in contemporary history, whether it is Britain’s version of exiting from the EU or secessions in troubled parts of Africa.
Even California, which would automatically take its place as the world’s fourth largest economy should it secede from the US due to its frustrations with Trump, would rather stay where it is right now.
Leave-taking, lest secession proponents forget, is easier said than done.
