INLATION may have reached as high as 8.1 percent in October as higher domestic fuel, electricity and transport costs added pressure on consumer prices, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Friday.
In a statement, the central bank said the inflation forecast range for the month of October is between 7.1 and 8.1 percent, exceeding September’s 7.2 percent.
“Upward price pressures are likely to come from higher prices of domestic fuel, electricity and transport fares,” the BSP said.
“These pressures could be partially offset by lower prices of key agricultural commodities, such as rice, vegetables, meat and fish, owing to favorable supply conditions,” it added.
Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Arogo forecast October inflation at 7.4 percent.
“We forecast inflation inched up to 7.4 percent in October. Our baseline view is for inflation to peak at 7.6 percent in February 2027 and a sub-4.0 percent level could be achieved by August,” Arogo said.
Jonathan Ravelas, Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser, meanwhile, projected October inflation at 7.8 percent, citing higher global oil prices that have pushed up energy, food and logistics costs.
He said inflation pressures remained broad-based and could keep the BSP on guard.
“If inflation breaches 8 percent over the next two months, the case for another 50-basis-point rate hike in December becomes much stronger,” Ravelas said, adding that markets should closely monitor incoming inflation data.
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., estimated October inflation at 7.6 percent year on year, citing higher global crude oil prices, the peso’s depreciation against the dollar and minimum wage increases.
Ricafort said these pressures could be partly tempered by recent local fuel price rollbacks and improved weather conditions that could help stabilize food and agricultural prices.
The BSP said it would remain guided by incoming data, particularly inflation and growth prospects, while assessing the impact of developments in the Middle East on the country’s inflation and economic outlook.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the official October inflation figures on Nov. 5.
