INFLATION likely remained elevated in September as weather-related food price increases, higher domestic fuel costs and weaker peso add to price pressures, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.
Consumer price growth was seen falling within a range of 6.4 to 7.4 percent in September, higher than the 6.1 percent recorded a month earlier and markedly above the central bank’s 2.0- to 4.0-percent target.
Inflation at the top end, if realized, would be the highest since March 2023’s 7.6 percent.
September inflation data will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Oct. 6.
“Upward price pressures for the month are likely to be driven by weather-related increases in the prices of vegetables, fish, rice and fruits,” the BSP said.
“Increased domestic petroleum prices and depreciation of the peso could likewise contribute to higher inflation,” it added.
However, lower prices of meat and electricity rates could partially offset the upward pressures, the central bank said.
The University of Asia and the Pacific in its latest Market Call report, said the “aggressive El Niño season” may result in faster inflation readings in September.
“The fresh run-up in crude oil prices, transport and some food products will likely impact inflation starting September,” the UA&P added.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. has said that inflation was likely to peak around the fourth quarter of this year before easing and returning to the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target range around the fourth quarter of 2027.
The BSP has cut its 2026 inflation forecast to 6.1 percent from 6.4 percent but that for 2027 was raised to 5.4 percent from 4.5 percent.
Rising inflation has so far prompted the central bank’s policymaking Monetary Board to raise key interest rates thrice this year, with the benchmark rate now at 5.0 percent.
