ALL of a sudden, the tensions in the West Philippine Sea subside. While the times just past saw frequent altercations between the China Coast Guard (CCG) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) over their respective assertions of sovereignty over the contested waters, the sudden outbreak of hostilities between the United States-Israel tandem on the one hand and Iran on the other now appears to have worked wonders.
The almost daily news reports on near-fierce engagements between the CCG and the PCG are gone, and in their stead are accounts on the Gulf War, particularly on the oil crisis the war brought about. The Philippines reportedly buys 98 percent of its oil from the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected Philippine supply of crude oil such that the country’s reserve for fuel is estimated, by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s admission, to last only up to April.
Where will the Philippines get its fuel?
At the question, China comes into play. In a manner quite different from the belligerent one hitherto popularly played up in Philippine media, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said it is unlikely that China will restrict fuel exports to the Philippines despite ongoing tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
“With the negotiations ongoing on the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) between Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and China, I don’t think so (that China will restrict fuel exports to the Philippines). I am very forward-looking. There are still a lot of good discussions,” Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro said in an ambush interview on the sidelines of the Federation of Philippine Industries forum in Taguig City.
The assurance is in line with the legacy of “future-oriented diplomacy” sealed by Secretary Lazaro with the previous Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Xilian. That very legacy, the present ambassador, Jing Quan, adheres to.
With such guideposts for handling China-Philippines relations, there is no room whatsoever for the two countries to end up fighting each other.
No country certainly plans a future of destruction.
Oh, well. There is the United States military-industrial complex which as we all know thrives on fomenting wars here and there in the world.
Yes, but then again, has America ever ignited war against itself?
None that we know of.
Except perhaps in this current crisis, which America began, intending to crush Iran for good but is heading to America’s forever destruction instead.
That’s one gargantuan miscalculation in any case, not true in the case of China-Philippines relations.
Lazaro urged the continuance of dialogue in navigating through the gamut of relations between China and the Philippines.
China, along with other countries, earlier announced plans to restrict fuel exports starting March 2026 to secure domestic supply amid continued tensions in the Middle East.
The Philippines is not heavily dependent on China for crude oil, relying as it is on other regional hubs such as Singapore and South Korea for refined petroleum products.
But negotiations between Asean and China on the DOC on the South China Sea (SCS) are being accelerated, with both sides aiming to finalize an agreement by 2026 under the Philippines’ chairmanship of the regional bloc. Earlier this year, talks in Cebu focused on key issues such as the agreement’s legal binding nature and geographic scope in the face of persistent regional tensions. The DOC could include provisions for fuel and energy, concerns brought to fore only with the explosion of the Gulf War.
Under the situation, it is not unlikely indeed that China may set aside political questions in the SCS dispute in favor of giving first place to food and energy concerns.
China holds one of the world’s largest emergency oil reserves, estimated between 900 million and 1.4 billion barrels as of March 2026, representing nearly three months of imports. Proved domestic reserves are roughly 26 billion barrels. China sources oil globally from nearly 50 countries, with major imports from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The latest information we got about the Hormuz Strait is that China, along with a few other allied countries, are allowed by Iran unperturbed passage in the critical waters. Moreover, tankers whose oil carriage has been paid for in Chinese yuan are likewise allowed by Iran to pass through. Add to these the fact that China is the largest oil importer from the Gulf region.
All the above present a picture of China as a reliable buffer for oil-deprived countries as a result of the ongoing Middle East war.
All it takes for any such country to enjoy that blessing is to be, so to speak, buddy-buddy with China.
And that’s not even an imposition from China’s side. As consistently manifested, on all of the Philippine occasions of grave distress — the Typhoon Yolanda disaster, for instance, where China responded promptly by sending a hospital ship to attend to the thousands of injured, sick and hungry victimized by the storm, or the Covid-19 pandemic when China just as promptly donated millions of doses of Sinovac for the afflicted Filipinos — China has always been ready to lend a helping hand.
Bare humanism guarantees that China will come helping the Philippines address its dire need for food and energy now.
China displayed this trait when, defying Israeli restrictions, it air-dropped food supplies to the hungry masses of Gaza.
The government has admitted the Philippine fuel buffer stock may only last until the end of April. President Marcos directed the DFA and the Department of Energy to secure alternative fuel sources.
Lazaro, for her part, had convened an emergency meeting of Asean foreign ministers, where aside from members calling for de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the use of diplomacy, she noted that Asean energy ministers had previously agreed on an emergency mechanism that would be activated once supply disruptions reach a certain threshold.
In this regard, the DFA has instructed Philippine embassies to coordinate with host governments to explore possible fuel supply arrangements.
“I have instructed selected foreign service posts and our ambassadors to engage their counterparts and ministries of energy to determine how they can assist us in this endeavor,” Lazaro said.
Meanwhile, President Marcos has assured that the government is exploring additional subsidies and assistance to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices.
He is the first head of state to declare a national energy emergency.
“We are trying to find different methods to provide subsidies and assistance,” the president said in an ambush interview.
Marcos acknowledged that volatile oil prices have made it difficult to plan interventions.
“The problem is that oil prices are very volatile, and we cannot anticipate them. So we are still adjusting,” he said.
Despite this, Marcos assured the public that the government has taken steps to cushion the impact of rising costs and that oil and food supplies remain sufficient.
“As much as possible, people should not worry. We are securing the supply of oil and food, and so far, our stocks are sufficient,” he said.
The president added that the government is continuing efforts to diversify energy sources, including seeking suppliers beyond traditional markets in the Middle East, and reiterated support for sectors most affected by rising fuel prices, particularly transport workers.
The problem really is that President Marcos seems not to have quite realized yet that an effective buffer to the Philippine oil crisis is just around the corner — China.
