THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) began its El Niño watch on Wednesday, seeing a strong probability that the weather phenomenon could occur between July and August this year.
Nathaniel Servando, Pagasa chief, said that with the termination of the La Niña event on March 9, ENSO-neutral conditions prevail and will most likely last until June or July 2026.
El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Thelma Cinco, Pagasa’s Weather Services head, said during a press briefing at the agency’s central office in Quezon City that the El Niño Watch was issued based on its ENSO Alert and Warning System, which indicated the phenomenon’s development with a probability of 55 percent or more within the next six months.
“El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which could bring negative impacts such as dry spells and droughts in some areas of the country,” Cinco said.
Above-normal rainfall conditions, however, can also be experienced during the southwest monsoon, particularly over the western part of the archipelago, she pointed out.