THE summer monsoon is here under the shadow of El Niño. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long period average (LPA), driven by the developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The El Niño warming patterns are known to weaken moisture-bearing winds and create uneven rainfall distribution across India. In its latest update, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the world should prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. Among the global impacts of El Niño, according to the WMO, will be below-average monsoon rainfall in South Asia.
One of the most obvious impacts of the developing weather situation will be extreme heat, heat-related illnesses, spread of vector-borne diseases and pressure on food, water and power generation. Heatwave conditions, warmer nights and humid conditions are being reported from many parts of the country. These impacts vary depending on local weather conditions and other factors like density of settlements, industrial and human activities and lack of green spaces.
All this leads to higher demand for cooling appliances and systems — fans, desert coolers, home and office ACs, mobile air-conditioning systems in vehicles such as cars, buses and trains, chillers, cold storages, etc. Homes, offices, industrial factories and infrastructure need cooling systems to suit their needs and demands. Adding more window, split and centralised ACs is not a sustainable solution. The demand for AC units has surged this year and there are shortages in many markets. In the business-as-usual scenario, it is estimated that India will add 130 to 150 million new room ACs between 2025 and 2035. These units will be a strain on the power system, accounting for almost 180 gigawatts of the load in 2035. At present, room ACs contribute to about 60 to 70 gigawatts of the peak load in the summer.
Urban areas witness the phenomenon of urban heat islands (UHI), where some dense areas become several degrees warmer than surrounding less-populated areas. Besides consuming more power, the use of AC units in cities amplifies the UHI effect as each unit throws heat directly into the ambient environment, creating a vicious cycle in which hotter areas drive even greater demand for cooling.
The mainstay of energy-efficient cooling in India, at present, is the star rating system for ACs introduced in 2009, first as a voluntary label and later made mandatory. Subsequently, the Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) were introduced, followed by the Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (ISEER) in 2015. These standards have made some impact on the AC market, with consumers preferring star-rated products and manufacturers introducing upgrades like inverter technology, which improves efficiency by adjusting compressor speed to cooling load.
While this is so, there are technical and implementation deficiencies. A 2025 study by researchers at the India Energy and Climate Centre, University of California, Berkeley, pointed out that the test procedures primarily assess cooling under dry conditions and overlook dehumidification, which is a critical factor in India’s hot-humid climate. So, ACs might work well in lab tests, but they may underperform in real-world settings or overcool spaces at high energy cost.
The study also found that the MEPS being enforced in India lag behind those of Japan and South Korea, where average efficiencies of ACs are almost double compared to the average unit in India. Compliance and enforcement of standards remain weak. In addition, multiple Central and state agencies are involved in the implementation of different aspects of cooling efficiency norms.
Another initiative, the India Cooling Action Plan, was launched in 2019. One of the ideas being experimented with under this action plan is the District Cooling System (DCS), on the lines of the centralised heating systems in use in some European cities. The DCS involves a centralised cooling system for a set of buildings. Cooling is distributed through pipelines, much like water or gas utilities.
Such a system is considered more efficient as cooling is produced at a central plant using treated wastewater and making use of waste heat through absorption chillers, instead of using refrigerant gases as in individual AC units. Since it is a centralised system, the cooling demand can be managed more efficiently. The DCS is considered ideal for airports, IT parks, industrial hubs, special economic zones, university campuses, etc. Such systems are functional in Singapore, Dubai, Qatar and the UAE.
For ‘cooling as a service’ to become a reality in India, however, several regulatory, legal and financial challenges, as well as hurdles like right-of-way, will have to be overcome. Some years ago, a DCS was planned for Connaught Place in Delhi, but the project failed to take off due to several on-ground problems. It may be relatively easier to implement in greenfield projects, as has been seen in the GIFT city in Gujarat. The DCS will be incorporated in the government buildings in Amaravati, the new capital of Andhra Pradesh, which is under development. It is time the DCS is promoted in large housing townships under construction in different cities.
Cooling is no longer just an option for the comfort of those who can afford it. As India gets urbanised and people move to cities, the demand for cooling will become more widespread. Building heat resilience for people and communities should be the policy goal if we are interested in addressing the cooling challenge that India faces. For this, the country needs a holistic cooling policy focussed on energy efficiency norms, cooling technologies designed to suit conditions conditions in different regions, increased consumer awareness about energy efficiency and research into new cooling techs.
At the same time, community-level initiatives like cool roofs, which can significantly reduce indoor temperature in dwellings exposed to heat, should be rolled out in heat-vulnerable areas. Although policies and initiatives exist, the overall approach remains fragmented and implementation slow.
