THE Department of Agriculture (DA) yesterday said agricultural losses during the 2026 to 2027 El Niño is expected to hit P20 billion, higher than the actual agricultural losses recorded during the 2023 to 2024 event.
Speaking during a Senate finance committee hearing on the DA’s proposed 2027 budget on Wednesday, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the higher expectation was largely due to forecasts that El Niño would be more massive than previous ones.
“In 2023–2024, our total value lost was almost P16 billion. With values up now and super El Niño, we expect to reach P20 billion in losses,” Tiu Laurel said.
Recently, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) warned that El Niño may intensify into a very strong one by end-2026 and persist until the first half of 2027.
Pagasa expects the current El Niño to bring below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, reduced water supply and extreme heat in parts of the country.
Tiu Laurel also expects volume of agricultural losses to double up to million metric tons and 350,000 hectares affected versus the volume of losses recorded in 2023–2024 El Niño.
“The volume lost in 2023–2024 was 828,000 metric tons (MT) or almost 280,000 hectares affected. We expect that our volume losses can reach up to a million tons. Area affected may reach about 350,000 hectares,” he said.
According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority shown at the hearing, agricultural losses caused by El Niño have already hit P6.86 billion as of Sept. 30. Volume of agricultural losses was at 163,812 MT, affecting 223,214 farmers and 249,028 hectares of farmland.
Harming hog raisers
The DA said it has also initiated a preliminary safeguard measures investigation into pork imports to determine if rising foreign shipments are harming local hog raisers and if temporary trade protection is needed.
Tiu Laurel ordered the probe motu proprio under Republic Act 8800, or the Safeguard Measures Act, citing initial evidence of increased imports causing serious injury to local producers.
“The DA determined that prima facie evidence exists to warrant initiating the preliminary safeguard measures investigation,” Tiu Laurel said in his Oct. 19 letter to Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro.
The investigation covers fresh, chilled and frozen pork, as well as offals and fats, under specified Asean Harmonized Tariff Nomenclature classifications.
The DA said early signs point to potential harm to local hog raisers, including lower farmgate prices and incomes, reduced market share and self-sufficiency, higher imports and rising commercial stocks.
Still, the agency noted the probe must still prove a direct link between increased imports and the injury. The start of the investigation does not mean foreign shipments are responsible, nor does it automatically trigger additional duties or import curbs.
The European Union is the biggest stakeholder in the case, accounting for about 47 percent of pork imports under review from 2021 to 2025, based on the DA notice. Other major suppliers include Brazil, Spain, Canada, the Netherlands and the United States.
According to official data cited by the group, domestic output fell to 1,658,283 metric tons in 2025, leaving a structural supply deficit of 661,481 metric tons compared to pre- African swine fever levels.
The latest Bureau of Animal Industry data show that from January to August, the Philippines’ meat imports reached 1.14 billion kilograms with pork imports accounting more than half of the shipments during the period where it reached 602.65 million kilograms, a 5.18-percent jump from 573.09 million kilograms last year.
