A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.
Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.
Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average by about 8 percentage points.
Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.
It comes as the president’s approval rating stands at 37.6 percent in Cook’s polling tracker. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found 35 percent approving of his performance — while a whopping 60 percent disapproved.
Research suggests that Republicans have become less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys. As a result, pollsters are giving greater weight to GOP voters who do respond, but that may mean that the results do not reflect the Republicans who do not answer the polls.
“The adjustment assumes that Republicans who respond to a poll are similar to the Republicans who don’t respond to the poll,” Rice University political science assistant professor Matthew Tyler told Axios.
Tyler cautioned that weighting GOP respondents more heavily can backfire, as voters who are willing to respond may also be more likely to vote Democratic than the Republicans who don’t respond, meaning the Democratic advantage may appear larger than it actually is.
Despite pollsters’ warnings about a potential overstatement on the Democratic side, most still believe Democrats will likely have the advantage this Election Day.
“I think it’s telling that we’re hanging our hopes on ‘The polls are wrong,’” Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told Axios. “That’s not very strong.”
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