Dubai Move Malaysia – Failed and Fizzled! Or Never There?

Malaysiakini reported that Tun is not involved in the Dubai move that is aimed to replace the Unit government under the leadership of PMX, according to Tun's loyalist Khairuddin Abu Hassan. (Malaysiakini, January 3, 2023). However, at the time of writing this article there is no denial of involvement from Tun or his office in the so called Dubai move. In the absence of such confirmation we have to purely rely on Khairuddin’s assertions.

According to the Malay Proclamation Secretariat, the scheme was “a play’ from the minds of UMNO President and Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi who is accused of possessing an overly imaginative mind. The irony of the situation is like in the “The Boy Who Cried Wolf’ story. It is also like buying insurance as protection from fire. In both situations; - it is a hoax until the wolf shows up and no fire no confirmation if the insurance is needed. Only and unless the “Dubai Move” or any move succeeds in toppling the Government we can confirm of such attempts. Politics is about association to form a grouping and as long as there are unhappy people within the Government such attempts are bound to exist. As it is not everyone is happy with the current Unity Government and notably a few are from UMNO.

We can have all types of attempts to topple the Government. Will it succeed this time? In order to answer this question we have to revisit the Sheraton Move from 2020 to 2022. The following are the issues relating to the collapse of the Pakatan Government in 2020.

1. The Prime Minister who was leading the Government via Parti Bersatu lost the support of his own party. As a result, he resigned and refused to heed to the request of his political partners in PH not to resign. They cried and pleaded with him to remain as Prime Minister, knowing well the incumbent stands a better chance af forming the Government. Tun was adamant that he wanted to resign and this was against the King’s advice. He resigned and was appointed as Interim Prime Minister.
2. As the interim prime minister. Tun attempted to form a Unity Government. His attempts failed. It is suggested the attempt failed mainly due to the assertion from UMNO that all their MP’s are accepted into the new Government unlike the piece meal basis they were admitted on previously. Tun did not give an answer as it was demanded on the spot and refused to be part of such an arrangement. This is according to Adam Mukhriz, a former officer from the Prime Minister’s Office; (The Malay Mail, 2nd March, 2020).
3. There was also confusion on who calls for a vote of confidence and if the interim Prime Minister can call for a vote of confidence in Parliament. Tun wrote a letter to call for a Vote of Confidence but this was not entertained by the speaker on technical grounds saying the Parliament must be convened first;
4. Tun did not attend the presidential council meeting of PH as he was of the opinion that Bersatu is already out of the coalition and is not entitled to attend. The failure of Tun to attend the PH Meeting resulted in PH losing trust in him and Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim being nominated as the sole candidate from the PH Block and;
5. Tan Sri Muhyiddin appeared the eventual winner though the initial battle was between Tun Mahathir and Dato’ Seri Anwar. the King called Tan Sri Muhyiddin who in his opinion had the majority support from the MP’s after a meeting with other Sultans. It was Tan Sri Muhyiddin who led a delegation consisting of UMNO president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, PAS president, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, GPS chairman, Datuk Patinggi Abang Abdul Rahman Johari Openg and former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali. Azmin’s faction tilted the scale in favor of him becoming PM to meet Tun during the leadership crisis that followed the resignation of Tun .

How it compares to what it is now? PMX is in firm control of his party and party leadership and not in the position Tun was in 2020. It looks highly unlikely for him to lose his support, his party’s leadership position or to be challenged. He does not have a breakaway faction and Azmin Ali that was there during the collapse of the PH Government in 2020. The one person that was capable of this non other than Tian Chua and showing sime signs of it was dropped in favor of a younger candidate in GE15;

1. PMX had many times mentioned that he is ready to face a vote of no confidence in Parliament and anyone can attempt to change the Government using the Vote of Confidence mechanism;
2. The lessons from the Sheraton move will serve him well and he knows he will have to be ready to prove his majority in Parliament and being the PM and Finance Mininster he has the leverage to do that;
3. He will not resign and leave his position and face the mess that Tun created for himself, his coalition, the Royal’s, the voters and the country. The voters felt that they had no role in determining the Prime Minister or the party they voted to be the Government;
4. UMNO is in the Government and hold's the Deputy Prime Ministers Position too. No party has the courage and experience that UMNO had demonstrated during the Sheraton move; Perhaps there is one party that can throw the equation out of balance but that issue has been somewhat addressed during the recent cabinet reshuffle; At the time of writing the DAP has not denied its involvement in the so called Dubai move but a few other parties have. At the same time mere denials cannot be assumed to be representative of the facts;
5. The Agong under the Federal Constitution can play a crucial role in preserving the mandate of the people. However, the Unity Government did not disclose that they will be willing to work with UMNO to form the Government if they are short of the numbers required even though such a possibility was decided well before the elections. Some voters felt any form cooperation with UMNO as a betrayal.

We'll leave it to the wisdom of the King. Let “Kesetiaan kepada Raja dan Negara” and Keluhuran Perlembagaan be our hope for a better future. The Agong is the umbrella that protects all Malaysians and we are blessed to have him.

Sivanesan Muthusamy is a Financial Markets Professional, Fintech and Startup Roll Out Strategist. He holds a Master's in Economics (Monetary Policy - Term Structure Analytics) and a degree in Economics (Hons.) Analytical Economics from the University of Malaya. His interests are in various fields and current issues. He is a strong believer in Malaysia and its potential.

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