Vice President Sara Duterte remains the frontrunner in a hypothetical head-to-head race for the 2028 presidential election, although her lead over former vice president and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo has narrowed since the first quarter of the year, the latest Tugon ng Masa survey released by OCTA Research showed on Wednesday.
The survey found that 43 percent of adult Filipinos would vote for Duterte if the 2028 presidential election were held during the poll period, while 34 percent preferred Robredo. Twenty-two percent said they were undecided or would choose neither candidate, and one percent refused to answer.
Duterte’s advantage narrowed to nine percentage points from the 11-point lead she posted in OCTA’s first-quarter survey, where she received 46 percent support against Robredo’s 35 percent. Her support declined by three percentage points, while Robredo’s slipped by one point, with the share of undecided voters increasing from 19 percent to 22 percent.
The survey was conducted from July 4 to 11 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at the 95-percent confidence level.
Duterte and Robredo were tied in the National Capital Region at 34 percent each, with 32 percent of respondents undecided. Robredo led in Balance Luzon, 51 percent to 27 percent, while Duterte dominated Visayas, 51 percent to 26 percent, and Mindanao, 76 percent to 6 percent.
By socioeconomic class, Duterte led among Class D respondents, 43 percent to 36 percent, and among Class E respondents, 51 percent to 31 percent. Among Class ABC respondents, Duterte received 36 percent, Robredo 27 percent, while another 36 percent remained undecided or opted for neither candidate.
The survey also showed Duterte’s strongest support came from respondents aged 25 to 34, where she garnered 61 percent, while Robredo posted her strongest showing among respondents aged 75 and above, receiving 61 percent support.
Comparing the first and second quarter surveys, OCTA said the most significant movement occurred in Metro Manila, where Robredo’s 20-point lead in the previous survey disappeared, leaving the two potential candidates tied. The polling firm said the shift appeared to reflect a rise in undecided voters rather than a direct transfer of support from Robredo to Duterte.
OCTA said that the findings represent an early measure of public sentiment nearly two years before the 2028 presidential election and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the election’s outcome.
