KUALA LUMPUR — Early elections for Melaka and Johor could reshape Malaysia's political landscape ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), analysts said, following indications that Barisan Nasional’s (BN) lead party Umno prefers early state polls and to contest without Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Not aligning the two state elections with GE16, and contesting without PH, gives BN the opportunity to measure its strength and recalibrate its relationship with the ruling coalition under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, said Datuk Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.
Early polls in both states would also challenge existing assumptions about coalition politics, the socio-political analyst at University of Malaya’s Academy of Malay Studies told Scoop.
"Separate contests in Johor and Melaka could reshape the political landscape ahead of GE16.
“They may influence alliance structures, seat allocation formulas, and challenge long-held assumptions about inter-coalition dependence," he said, adding that if managed well, it can lead to more mature political competition.
“If not, it could usher in a far tougher and more uncertain phase of negotiations ahead of the next general election.”
If BN chooses to go solo in the Melaka and Johor polls, Awang Azman said “the political message would be clear — cooperation at the federal level does not automatically translate into electoral cooperation.”
“It would signal that the BN-PH relationship may remain functional in government, while still being competitive at the ballot box. This could lead to a recalibration of their partnership, rather than an outright rupture,” he said.
Other reasons BN may prefer to contest without PH is to rebuild its own identity and measure its true strength without relying on transferred votes.
“In party logic, winning under its own banner carries greater value in future negotiations than victories achieved through coalition compromises. It is also part of a broader effort to revive its traditional political narrative and strengthen loyalty among Malay voters and fence-sitters,” Awang Azman said.
In July last year, BN deputy chairman Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan floated the idea of BN contesting Melaka without PH.
Melaka is due for polls after December when its legislative assembly expires, while Johor’s state assembly completes its current term in April 2027. GE16, however, only needs to be held by February 2028.
Last month, Melaka Umno chief Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh, who is also Melaka Chief Minister, said state polls could be held before the year ends.
Recently, BN-Umno chief and Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi dismissed suggestions that the state polls be postponed due to economic pressure from the US-Israel war on Iran, saying it is not Umno and BN’s stand to delay the state elections.
What makes BN so confident?
Geostrategist Prof Dr Azmi Hassan believes BN is highly likely to push for separate elections in both states, beginning with Melaka.
"I think Barisan Nasional will not wait for the general election, because it is advantageous for Umno to hold it separately so that they can gauge their strength in these two particular stronger states," he told Scoop.
The state election results would provide BN with the clearest indication of its standing and be a benchmark for Umno to face the broader national political landscape heading into GE16, he added.
Associate Professor Tunku Mohar Mokhtar said BN’s confidence to contest the state polls without PH stems from strong by-election performances in the last two years, including its landslide win in the Mahkota by-election in 2024.
Other sources of confidence are the weakening of rival Malay party, Bersatu, and the resolution of most of Umno’s internal issues, added Tunku Mohar, who is with the International Islamic University Malaysia’s Department of Political Science.
Similarly, Awang Azman agreed, noting that BN has revived due to the return of several veteran figures, relatively stable internal leadership, and a perception that rising living costs and voter fatigue with coalition politics could work in its favour.
Impact on PH and GE16
Melaka and Johor, both regarded as BN strongholds, would therefore serve as the perfect testing ground for its renewed strength.
Tunku Mohar said BN victories in these states could bolster its argument for contesting the next general election independently of PH.
BN wins would also help dispel suggestions that its recent by-election successes were driven largely by transfer votes from PH supporters.
"The message is that cooperation with PH isn't guaranteed; it was simply convenient.
"BN also doesn't want to be seen as cooperating with DAP, a party it portrays as anti-Malay," he said, adding that an alliance with PH could alienate some segments of Umno’s traditional support base.
The political pressure on Anwar and PH would be significant, Tunku Mohar added, as a strong BN showing in Melaka and Johor would weaken PH's bargaining power in seat negotiations, if both coalitions agree to contest GE16 together.
"Anwar and PH cannot assume that the current coalition will contest the next general election as a unified entity,” he said, adding that this should push PH to strengthen its own grassroots support ahead of GE16. - April 26, 2026
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