The 2026 World Cup knockout rounds are only a couple of days old, and they have already produced two penalty shootouts — Germany dumped out by Paraguay, the Netherlands beaten by Morocco on the same night.
There is nothing quite like it in international football. One set of players collapses in pure joy, the other in unbearable pain, and the only thing separating them is a few kicks of a ball.
It is the cruelest and most gripping way to settle a match. And there may now be a fairly reliable way of guessing, before a ball is even kicked, which side ends up celebrating.
Why going first has become a World Cup shootout disadvantage
OptaJoe posted to X after Monday’s drama with a stat that should worry any captain who wins the toss.
The account wrote: “15% – The team going first has won just two of the last 13 FIFA World Cup penalty shootouts, having won 15 of the first 24 (63%).”
In other words, what was once an edge has flipped into a burden. Shooting first used to mean applying the pressure. Now it seems to invite it.
The team that shoots first is settled by a coin toss between the captains.
The most recent World Cup final fits the pattern perfectly. France went first through Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi answered for Argentina, and it was Messi’s side, shooting second, who lifted the trophy after winning the shootout 4-2.
There are sure to be more shootouts before the final on July 19th, and each one will be a fresh test of whether the trend holds.
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