Five experts predict what happens next with UK mortgage rates - and what you should do now

The UK mortgage market was on a rollercoaster ride in the first half of 2026, and homeowners hoping for a calmer journey from summer and beyond have quickly been left disappointed.

Turbulence in the Middle East saw the Iran war impact the UK economy, with deals being withdrawn, and two and five-year fixed rates peaking at 5.9 per cent and 5.78 per cent respectively in April.

Moneyfacts’ Rachel Springall points out a temporary US-Iran ceasefire did bring some relief to the market - but the mood has since shifted again later in July.

“Borrowers will be deeply disappointed to see mortgage rates on the rise again, but this just shows how sensitive our financial markets are to geopolitical tensions. As feared, rising swap rates are a signal for lenders to move quickly to re-price their ranges, as fixed mortgage rates tend to follow these moves,” Springall said.

But what is next for borrowers? To give some insight into what the remainder of 2026 could look like and what consumers might want to do in the current market, The Independent spoke to five industry experts across mortgage brokerages, property consultancies and estate agents for their thoughts.

Richard Dana, founder of online mortgage broker Tembo

Dana expects more stability rather than dramatic change for the remainder of 2026. While no one can predict interest rates with certainty, “the most likely scenario is that the Bank of England continues its cautious, data-driven approach, with any moves likely to be gradual rather than significant”.

He adds: “For anyone looking to remortgage or buy their first home, the focus should be less on trying to perfectly time the market and more on finding the right mortgage product for their circumstances.”

Dana’s biggest piece of advice is don't panic an instead, to seek advice early and make a plan.

The entrepreneur also urges buyers to look beyond the purchase price. “Make sure you understand the total monthly cost of owning the property, not just the mortgage payment, before you commit,” he says.

Sharief Ibrahim, head of residential at consultancy CBRE

Ibrahim is not expecting any increases to the base rate for the remainder of 2026, but cautions we could see further volatility in the rates available to borrowers.

“There is a chance that long-term borrowing costs and swap rates may be impacted as markets react to changes in government. Hopefully, the number of mortgage products available and the rates widely available will remain relatively stable for the remainder of 2026,” he said.

When it comes to moving, do your research, which should include speaking to your bank, existing lender, and a good independent mortgage broker.

For those remortgaging, Ibrahim says if you are concerned about the monthly cost increasing significantly, you could consider switching to an interest only product if eligible.

“Alternatively, if you have the cash available you could consider reducing the outstanding amount if the change in loan to value qualifies you for a lower interest rate,” he says.

Dominic Agace, CEO of estate agency Winkworth

Agace says: “Looking ahead, forecasts for interest rates continue to vary, with predictions ranging from a single 25 basis point increase to as many as three [interest rate hikes]. At present, market expectations are centred on one further increase, which I believe is a reasonable indication for the mortgage environment for the rest of the year.”

He has observed the housing market has become increasingly driven by genuine moving needs, making it more resilient to wider economic shocks.

Agace’s advice would be to secure a fixed-rate mortgage that remains “comfortably affordable” for the next three to five years, depending on your circumstances and the reasons behind your move.

He thinks if that still enables you to purchase, then it is worth considering moving ahead rather than waiting indefinitely for market conditions to improve.

Andrew Montlake, CEO of mortgage broker Coreco

The biggest challenge for the Bank of England is where to go next on interest rates, thinks Montlake. He says: “The issues in the Middle East, volatile oil prices and political changes here in the UK all have had an effect on the swap rate market which has led to mortgage rates often changing quickly.”

He remains cautiously optimistic that the market will improve going into 2027.

Montlake’s advice includes: “Remember that there is so much more mortgage choice out there than just your current bank. Speaking to an adviser early on, before you start looking for a property, can save so much time, money and heartache.”

For those looking to remortgage, Montlake says: “The earlier you start the better position you will find yourself in.”

His firm speaks to clients six months before their rate expires to have time to look at all the options and secure a rate early.

Nigel Bishop, founder of agent Recoco Property Search

Bishop is clear that rates won’t be headed downward soon. “The Bank of England has continued to hold rates at 3.75 per cent and any major rate cuts for the remainder of the year are unlikely. Unfortunately there is too much uncertainty over geopolitical and economic developments as well as speculations over what our new prime minister has up his sleeve,” he said.

Bishop continues: “Compared to last year, borrowers need to adjust to potentially tougher market conditions and stricter lending criteria.”

He suggests anyone looking to remortgage or seek their first mortgage consults with a professional and independent mortgage advisor, scouts the market for the latest deals and, “most importantly, take into account future rate rises”.

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